What If Trump Declares US Victory in the War? What Would Iran's Response Be?
US intelligence agencies are conducting a thorough assessment of potential Iranian reactions should President Donald Trump unilaterally declare victory in the war that has lasted two months. Citing an exclusive Reuters report on Wednesday (29/04/2026), this step comes amid escalating political burdens on the White House from the conflict, which has claimed thousands of lives.
Senior government officials have tasked the intelligence community with analysing the implications if Trump decides to withdraw from the conflict. This is driven by advisers’ concerns that the unpopular war could lead to a crushing defeat for the Republican Party in this year’s midterm elections.
“The purpose of this analysis is to understand the implications of a potential Trump withdrawal from the conflict, which is feared to contribute to a major Republican loss in the upcoming midterms,” said one source familiar with the matter.
Although no decision has been made, rapid de-escalation is seen as a way to alleviate political pressure on the president. However, the major risk is that Iran could feel empowered and potentially rebuild its nuclear and missile programmes that threaten US allies in the region.
Intelligence sources indicate that if Trump declares victory while maintaining a large troop presence, Tehran is likely to view it merely as a negotiation tactic. Conversely, if the US withdraws its forces, Iran would regard it as an absolute victory for them.
“If Trump declares victory and the US withdraws its forces from the region, Iran is likely to see it as a victory for them,” the source said.
To date, the political cost to Trump has been extremely high. Recent polls show that this military campaign is highly unpopular among Americans, with only 26% of respondents believing the war is worth its cost. Additionally, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up global energy prices and petrol costs at US filling stations.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly stated that the administration remains focused on national security and will not rush into a deal that harms US interests. She reaffirmed Trump’s position that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons.
“The President will only sign a deal that prioritises US national security, and he has made clear that Iran must not have nuclear weapons,” Kelly emphasised.
Although military options such as follow-up airstrikes on Iranian political and military leaders remain available, the prospect of a ground invasion into Iranian territory is now considered less likely than it was a few weeks ago. On the other hand, Iran is reported to have used the ceasefire period since 8 April to repair its military infrastructure, missile launchers, and drones previously destroyed by US and Israeli bombings.