What Are the Aims of the US–Israel Attack on Iran?
The dispute between the United States, Israel, and Iran has entered its third day. The US–Israel strike on Iran has escalated into a regional war after Iran launched raids on a number of Arab states described as American allies. The escalation shows no signs of stopping; several countries have taken action. One of them, the UK, which has now allowed the United States to use its military bases in Cyprus. It is still too early to know when or how the conflict will end, for once war begins it is difficult to curb.
However, here are some of the ways the conflicting parties aim to end this fighting.
Trump’s Definition of Victory
From the outset, President Trump has framed victory in his own terms.
“We will destroy their missiles and flatten their missile industry to the ground. Completely eradicated,” Trump said in a video message recorded at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, USA.
“We will destroy their navy. We will ensure that the region’s militant proxies can no longer threaten regional stability or global stability, they cannot attack our forces, and they will no longer use IEDs or roadside bombs that cause severe injuries and the deaths of thousands of people, including many American citizens.”
The issue of Iran’s missiles has always been used as a justification by Trump to take military action against Iran. For him, victory is linked to the destruction of Iran’s missiles. Because he claims Iran is developing missiles capable of reaching the US. This claim is not supported by US intelligence assessments.
He also claimed Iran was close to developing a nuclear weapon. This contradicts his own statement last summer that the US had “destroyed” Iran’s nuclear facilities.
As part of the video announcing the start of the war, Trump appears wearing an open-collared shirt and a white baseball cap pulled down to cover his eyes.
He outlines a long list of charges, claiming Iran has posed an immediate threat to the US since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
For moments as dangerous as this, other presidents before Trump would likely choose a sober speech from behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office, rather than from a house in casual attire.
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Trump’s move is welcomed by Israel, which also has ambitions to cripple the Tehran regime. If the regime does not surrender, Trump wants them destroyed so that the Iranian people will have the opportunity to go out onto the streets and seize power:
“When we are finished, you take over your government. It will be yours. This may be your only chance in decades. For years you have asked for American help, but you have never received it. No president is willing to do what I have done tonight. Now you have a president who will give you what you want. So let’s see how you respond.”
Trump claims Iran is developing missiles capable of reaching America. This claim is not supported by US intelligence.
His words appear to be democratic in that they open space and responsibility for the Iranian people to change the regime. However, it may be a tactic by Trump to avert accountability if the regime under attack endures.
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Because the likelihood of toppling the regime by air power alone is very small. To date there has been no regime change or victory in a war against an armed foe solely through air strikes.
In 2003, the US and its allies, including the UK, sent ground troops to Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein.
In 2011, Col Muammar Gaddafi in Libya was toppled by rebels backed by NATO and Gulf states, and protected by their air forces.
Anadolu via Getty Images
The United States and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday (28/02) and killed the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Trump’s current plan, which urges the Iranian people to take to the streets to overthrow the regime, is a big gamble.
Is a Western-backed coup from within possible? Not impossible, but of course not yet visible on day three of the war.
The opposite likely scenario at present is that the regime’s leaders will endure and launch further missiles.
Such actions are driven by ideology and the belief that they can endure longer than the US, Israel, or Gulf Arab states.
Netanyahu’s Calculus
Like Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu has also made statements that push Iranians to take action themselves.
However, if they cannot defeat the regime’s security forces, Netanyahu’s priority is to destroy Iran’s military and its ability to build militias across the region that could threaten Israel.
For decades, Netanyahu has regarded Iran as Israel’s most dangerous enemy. He believes the rulers of the Islamic Republic want to develop a nuclear weapon to destroy the Jewish state.
On Sunday (01/03), he stood on a rooftop in Tel Aviv and explained his view of how this war would end.
He said Israel