Weather threatens Asia rice harvest but exports unaffected

Weather threatens Asia rice harvest but exports unaffected

Agence France-Presse, Bangkok

Adverse weather conditions across Asia could affect the region's rice harvest this year but exports are unlikely to be harmed, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said Wednesday.

Improved production prospects in China, Indonesia, Myanmar and Thailand account for an expected production increase of six million tons over the previous estimate made in June, to a total 595 million tons.

"The 2002 production outlook, however, is still highly uncertain, especially as adverse weather conditions are being reported in several parts of the world, including faltering monsoon rains in India," the FAO warned in its Rice Market Monitor.

However, it said China's flood woes are "unlikely to affect production, which is forecast to be higher than last year at 177.8 million tons, marking a reversal of the contraction experienced in the past two seasons."

Several central and eastern Chinese provinces are under threat of massive flooding which have already left 1,300 people dead and could inundate large swathes of farmland.

Other key producers Thailand, Vietnam, and Myanmar have also been hit by major flooding in the past month.

Rice production in India this year is expected to drop by two million tons, the monitor said, but exports are expected to rise sharply to 4.2 million tons, nearly double the 2.2 million shipped last year.

Thailand, the world's leading rice exporter, has dropped its export forecast by 100,000 tons to 7.5 million tons, equal to the record volume of foreign sales in 2001, it added.

And Vietnam, which is projected to be displaced by India this year as the world's number two exporter, has forecast its overseas sales will dip to a seven-year low of three million tons despite bumper harvests.

But a major surge in Myanmar rice production contributes to Asia's positive paddy forecasts.

This year's rice crop is expected to jump 1.5 million tons to a record 22.2 million tons, and export forecasts have been revised upwards by 400,000 tons since June, to a record 1.1 million tons.

"Myanmar's achievement is remarkable, since in 2000 the country officially managed only to export 140,000 tons," the report said.

Indonesia's rice harvest forecast for 2002 has been increased by 2.2 million tons, to a total 50.8 million, though the figure could shrink with abnormally light rains reported in Java.