Weak Prospects, Rupiah Expected to Remain at Rp17,000 Level
REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA – The rupiah exchange rate continued its weakening trend above the Rp17,000 per US dollar level in the past week, amid high global uncertainty due to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. In next week’s trading, the rupiah is projected to move in the range of Rp17,040–Rp17,200 per US dollar.
It was recorded that at the close of trading on Friday (10/4/2026), the rupiah closed weaker by 14 points or 0.08 percent to Rp17,104 per US dollar.
“For trading next Monday (13/4/2026), the rupiah currency is expected to be volatile but tend to weaken in the range of Rp17,110–Rp17,160 per US dollar. Over the week, the rupiah is traded in the range of Rp17,040–Rp17,200 per US dollar,” said Currency and Commodities Observer Ibrahim Assuaibi in his statement, quoted Saturday (11/4/2026).
Ibrahim explained several sentiments influencing the continuation of the rupiah’s weakening trend. Externally, particularly related to the dynamics of conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel.
He explained that tensions in the Middle East had temporarily eased with a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, although it was fragile. Meanwhile, Israel signalled the opening of diplomatic channels by stating its readiness to start direct talks with Lebanon. However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the conflict has disrupted shipping traffic.
“Ship traffic through the strait is far below 10 percent of normal volume on Thursday, despite the ceasefire. Tehran asserted its control by warning ships to remain in its territorial waters. Iran and the United States agreed to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, but fighting continued after the announcement,” said Ibrahim.
He noted that analysts assess Pakistan will endeavour to push for a more permanent peace agreement, but has limitations in influence to reopen that strategic route. In addition, Iran is said to want to impose fees on passing ships as part of the peace agreement, although this is rejected by Western countries and the United Nations shipping body.
That vital route for oil and gas distribution is practically closed due to the conflict that began on 28 February when the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran. Around 50 infrastructure assets in the Gulf region were reported damaged by drone and missile strikes over nearly six weeks, while oil refining capacity of around 2.4 million barrels per day is not operating, according to JPMorgan.
On the other hand, the market is also monitoring US consumer price index (CPI) data that could provide clues on the direction of central bank The Federal Reserve’s policy.
“Economists predict the main CPI will rise due to the surge in energy prices amid the Middle East conflict,” said Ibrahim.