War Still Hot! Indonesia, China-US to Announce Important News This Week

Indonesia’s financial markets are expected to remain volatile in early trading this week, on Monday (30/3/2026) and throughout the coming week. For more details on projections for sentiment from today to the next week, see page 3 of this article.

At the close of trading last Friday, the JCI ended at 7,097.06. In a single day, the JCI weakened by 0.94%.

On Friday’s trading, there were 396 stocks down, 292 up, and 270 unchanged. Transaction values were also sluggish, totalling Rp11.64 trillion involving 18.83 billion shares in 1.38 million transactions. Market capitalisation fell to Rp12,516 trillion.

Despite the JCI, foreign investors were recorded selling across the market, with a net outflow of Rp1.76 trillion.

In terms of issuer movements, investors focused heavily on selling shares of Bank Central Asia (BBCA). Shares of this Djarum Group issuer recorded the largest total buy and sell transactions, amounting to Rp4.14 trillion or nearly 36% of total trading transactions.

Along with this selling action, BBCA shares fell 2.55% to 6,700. This was also followed by foreign investor selling, booking a net sell of Rp609 billion in BBCA shares. Citing Refinitiv, BBCA became the main drag on the JCI with a weight of -16.58 index points.

Besides BBCA, several other big-cap stocks also became major drags on the JCI. Telkom (TLKM) and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) pulled the JCI down by -12.62 index points and -11 index points, respectively.

Shifting to the rupiah’s movement against the US dollar at the end of last week, the rupiah had to close weaker even though cumulatively over the week it still strengthened slightly.

Pressure on the rupiah had actually been evident since the start of trading. In the morning, the rupiah opened weaker by 0.09% at Rp16,910/US$.

However, cumulatively over the previous week, the rupiah managed to strengthen slightly by 0.09%.

From the global market, the US dollar strengthened again after hopes of easing the conflict in the Middle East began to fade. Market participants assessed the chances of a peace agreement between the US and Iran as still small, thus raising concerns about a longer war. This condition made the US dollar sought after again as a safe-haven asset.

Market concerns were also heightened because the Strait of Hormuz remains at risk of disruption. If this route remains obstructed, global energy supplies could come under even greater pressure and trigger a surge in oil prices. This risk ultimately increases concerns about global inflation and supports the strengthening of the US dollar.

Shifting to the bond market, the yield on Indonesia’s benchmark 10-year government bond was observed stable at 6.848% at the close of trading last Friday.

The US stock market closed in a slump again at the end of last week, on Friday (27/3/2026), signalling that pressure in global markets is still far from easing.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 793.47 points or 1.73% to 45,166.64 and officially entered correction territory, after closing about 10% below its all-time high close on 10 February.

The S&P 500 also fell 1.67% to 6,368.85, its lowest closing level in about seven months, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.15% to 20,948.36.

Over the week, the S&P 500 was recorded weakening 2.1% and marking five consecutive weeks of declines, while the Nasdaq fell 3.2% and the Dow corrected 0.9%.

Megacap technology stocks again became the main burden on the market, while the CBOE volatility index or VIX also rose to 31.05, the highest since April 2023, indicating rising investor anxiety.

This selling action shows that investors remain very cautious about the impact of the US-Israel war against Iran, which has now lasted about one month. The market had previously hoped for a easing of tensions after US President Donald Trump extended the deadline for attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure until 6 April 2026.

However, that extension failed to calm market participants because uncertainty on the ground remains high, from reports of potential additional US troop deployments to the Middle East to the lack of real signals that diplomatic channels will truly lead to conflict resolution.

The biggest concern remains focused on the energy sector. Global oil prices surged sharply after the market assessed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz as still a serious threat to global supplies. At Friday’s close, Brent contracts rose 4.22% to US$112.57 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surged 5.46% to US$99.64 per barrel.

Both benchmarks broke their highest closing levels since July 2022. Since the attacks began at the end of February, Brent has surged about 53% and WTI about 45%, showing how large the risk premium now being priced into the energy market is.

It is this oil surge that has become a new source of pressure for Wall Street.

Investors are concerned that rising energy prices will drive inflation to heat up again, thus narrowing the US central bank’s (The Federal Reserve/The Fed) room to cut interest rates this year. These concerns directly pressured technology stocks and growth stocks, which have been the most sensitive to interest rate directions.

With this condition, the market seems no longer sufficiently convinced by statements that talks are still ongoing. What investors need now is concrete evidence that the conflict is truly heading towards resolution.

As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains shadowed by disruption threats and oil prices stay high, pressure on global stock markets could persist, especially because investors now also have to face higher inflation risks at a time when economic growth is starting to lose momentum.

Entering the trading week that marks the end of March as well as the start of the new month of April 2026, domestic financial market participants will monitor several important data points from home and abroad.

The sentiment being monitored this time includes US labour market conditions, China and US manufacturing activity, inflation, and more.