War Not Over Yet: Performance of CPO and Coal Over the Week
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The agricultural commodities and energy-dense markets showed opposing trends to hedging instruments throughout the third week of April 2026.
Amid rising geopolitical tensions following the failure of United States-Iran diplomacy, prices of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and coal instead recorded a correction phase.
This phenomenon indicates that market participants are beginning to factor in the risks of weakening global demand caused by inflation threats and a slowdown in international industrial activity.
Dynamics of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Prices
The movement of CPO prices on the derivatives exchange showed a consistent adjustment trend over the week. Starting trading on Monday (13/4) at the level of 4,555 ringgit per tonne, the price of this commodity gradually came under downward pressure.
Although there was temporary stabilisation around 4,495 ringgit on Thursday (16/4), selling actions dominated again until the price closed weaker at the level of 4,450 ringgit per tonne at the end of trading on Friday (17/4).
This CPO price correction reflects the market’s direct response to the smooth flow of international logistics. Plans for conflict de-escalation and the reopening of access to the Strait of Hormuz during that week provided certainty for global commodity logistics distribution.
This situation alleviated concerns about supply shortages due to shipping obstacles, allowing market participants to remove the geopolitical risk premium component that had previously kept CPO prices at high levels.
Coal Price Movement and Supply Normalisation
A more significant weakening trend was recorded for the coal commodity. At the start of the week (13/4), coal prices were still positioned at $132.05 per tonne.
However, with the implementation of plans to reduce military tensions and optimism regarding logistics easing, the price of this solid energy continued to decline. This decline continued until the end of the week’s trading, where coal closed at $122.45 per tonne on Friday (17/4).
As a substitute energy commodity, coal prices are highly sensitive to disruptions in crude oil supply. When regional tensions were reported to ease and crude oil distribution routes returned to normal operation last week, market panic regarding the global energy supply crisis shrank drastically.
The reduction in this panic encouraged the liquidation of long positions in the futures market, returning coal prices to more reasonable levels without the burden of a war risk premium.
Future Commodities Market Prospects
The decline in CPO and coal prices last week confirms that industrial commodity movements are highly tied to the smoothness of physical supply chains.
The disappearance of the geopolitical risk premium in the market has given room for commodity prices to correct and find a new equilibrium point.
However, with the emergence of new information dynamics yesterday (18/4/2026) regarding Iran re-imposing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, market participants are projected to readjust risk valuations at the opening of the market early this week.
The future direction of commodity price movements will very much depend on the real stability of international logistics routes and the continuation of inter-country negotiations, which to date remain in a grey area.