Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The agricultural commodities and\nenergy-dense markets showed opposing trends to hedging instruments\nthroughout the third week of April 2026.<\/p>\n
Amid rising geopolitical tensions following the failure of United\nStates-Iran diplomacy, prices of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and coal instead\nrecorded a correction phase.<\/p>\n
This phenomenon indicates that market participants are beginning to\nfactor in the risks of weakening global demand caused by inflation\nthreats and a slowdown in international industrial activity.<\/p>\n
Dynamics of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Prices<\/p>\n
The movement of CPO prices on the derivatives exchange showed a\nconsistent adjustment trend over the week. Starting trading on Monday\n(13\/4) at the level of 4,555 ringgit per tonne, the price of this\ncommodity gradually came under downward pressure.<\/p>\n
Although there was temporary stabilisation around 4,495 ringgit on\nThursday (16\/4), selling actions dominated again until the price closed\nweaker at the level of 4,450 ringgit per tonne at the end of trading on\nFriday (17\/4).<\/p>\n
This CPO price correction reflects the market\u2019s direct response to\nthe smooth flow of international logistics. Plans for conflict\nde-escalation and the reopening of access to the Strait of Hormuz during\nthat week provided certainty for global commodity logistics\ndistribution.<\/p>\n
This situation alleviated concerns about supply shortages due to\nshipping obstacles, allowing market participants to remove the\ngeopolitical risk premium component that had previously kept CPO prices\nat high levels.<\/p>\n
Coal Price Movement and Supply Normalisation<\/p>\n
A more significant weakening trend was recorded for the coal\ncommodity. At the start of the week (13\/4), coal prices were still\npositioned at $132.05 per tonne.<\/p>\n
However, with the implementation of plans to reduce military tensions\nand optimism regarding logistics easing, the price of this solid energy\ncontinued to decline. This decline continued until the end of the week\u2019s\ntrading, where coal closed at $122.45 per tonne on Friday (17\/4).<\/p>\n
As a substitute energy commodity, coal prices are highly sensitive to\ndisruptions in crude oil supply. When regional tensions were reported to\nease and crude oil distribution routes returned to normal operation last\nweek, market panic regarding the global energy supply crisis shrank\ndrastically.<\/p>\n
The reduction in this panic encouraged the liquidation of long\npositions in the futures market, returning coal prices to more\nreasonable levels without the burden of a war risk premium.<\/p>\n
Future Commodities Market Prospects<\/p>\n
The decline in CPO and coal prices last week confirms that industrial\ncommodity movements are highly tied to the smoothness of physical supply\nchains.<\/p>\n
The disappearance of the geopolitical risk premium in the market has\ngiven room for commodity prices to correct and find a new equilibrium\npoint.<\/p>\n
However, with the emergence of new information dynamics yesterday\n(18\/4\/2026) regarding Iran re-imposing a blockade on the Strait of\nHormuz, market participants are projected to readjust risk valuations at\nthe opening of the market early this week.<\/p>\n
The future direction of commodity price movements will very much\ndepend on the real stability of international logistics routes and the\ncontinuation of inter-country negotiations, which to date remain in a\ngrey area.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/war-not-over-yet-performance-of-cpo-and-coal-over-the-week-1776599446", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }