War could have ripple effect across the Pacific: Analysts

War could have ripple effect across the Pacific: Analysts

David Briscoe, Associated Press, Honolulu, Hawaii

War in Iraq could have a heavy impact across the Pacific, cutting
off Japanese tourism from Indonesia to Hawaii, escalating tension
on the Korean peninsula, and possibly increasing fuel costs
everywhere, analysts said in a forum.

In a sweeping look at the potential economic, social and
political repercussions of a war, there was little optimism at
the East-West Center regarding the buildup for a possible U.S.-
led attack to remove Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

Indonesia expert Richard Baker said it is wrong to think that
Hawaii, in these dangerous times, could not be the target of a
terrorist attack.

Referring to terrorist activity in such unlikely resort or
business centers as Bali, Indonesia, and Singapore, Baker
described Oahu as "a center of cultural tourism, a resort, a
communications and hugely important military center and one of
symbolic value to a potential terrorist."

He said Indonesia's tourism has been even more heavily
affected than Hawaii's because of the terrorist bombing that
killed 202 people, mostly foreign tourists, last October in Bali.

Honolulu is somewhat protected by the fact that it is
relatively isolated in the middle of the Pacific, he said. "But
terrorists always think two steps farther out of the box" and
need only to focus on "one weak link."

Gov. Linda Lingle, on her trip to Washington and New York last
month, said Hawaii is one of the least likely targets for
terrorist attack.

Jeff Brown, an energy researcher, said that even though Hawaii
does not depend on Middle Eastern oil, the world's supply is like
a "big swimming pool," with a shortage anywhere affecting all
nations, even in Asia, which has its own sources.

Hawaii gets most of its crude oil from Alaska, China and
Indonesia, rather than from the Middle East, Brown said.

"Even though we currently don't get oil from there, we're very
much at risk," he said.

Choong Nam Kim, a former political affairs aide to two South
Korean presidents, said that in the event of war with Iraq, the
United States and South Korea should be "very careful about any
changes of American forces in South Korea during the crisis."

Kim said the next move for North Korea could be testing of an
underground nuclear device or a ballistic missile, which could
increase tension on the peninsula.

It is unlikely that North Korea would fire a missile at Japan
or Hawaii, he said, adding, "An attack would mean the end of
North Korea which could not last more than one week."

He said the Communist country also is concerned about becoming
the next target for America, after Iraq.

Sheila Smith, an East-West Center fellow who deals with U.S.-
Japan security relations, said Japan's cooperation with the
United States has been invaluable leading up to a possible war
against Iraq, including help in getting the support of other UN
Security Council members and the presence of five Japanese supply
ships in the Persian Gulf region.

Muhamad Ali, a lecturer at the State Islamic University in
Jakarta, Indonesia, said Indonesian Muslims have a feeling of
solidarity with Iraqis that is behind public opposition to the
war.

If there's war, he said, "moderates will become radicals and
the radicals will become more radical."

The East-West Center is an organization funded by Congress to
strengthen U.S.-Asian ties and understanding.