War could have ripple effect across the Pacific: Analysts
War could have ripple effect across the Pacific: Analysts
David Briscoe, Associated Press, Honolulu, Hawaii
War in Iraq could have a heavy impact across the Pacific, cutting off Japanese tourism from Indonesia to Hawaii, escalating tension on the Korean peninsula, and possibly increasing fuel costs everywhere, analysts said in a forum.
In a sweeping look at the potential economic, social and political repercussions of a war, there was little optimism at the East-West Center regarding the buildup for a possible U.S.- led attack to remove Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.
Indonesia expert Richard Baker said it is wrong to think that Hawaii, in these dangerous times, could not be the target of a terrorist attack.
Referring to terrorist activity in such unlikely resort or business centers as Bali, Indonesia, and Singapore, Baker described Oahu as "a center of cultural tourism, a resort, a communications and hugely important military center and one of symbolic value to a potential terrorist."
He said Indonesia's tourism has been even more heavily affected than Hawaii's because of the terrorist bombing that killed 202 people, mostly foreign tourists, last October in Bali.
Honolulu is somewhat protected by the fact that it is relatively isolated in the middle of the Pacific, he said. "But terrorists always think two steps farther out of the box" and need only to focus on "one weak link."
Gov. Linda Lingle, on her trip to Washington and New York last month, said Hawaii is one of the least likely targets for terrorist attack.
Jeff Brown, an energy researcher, said that even though Hawaii does not depend on Middle Eastern oil, the world's supply is like a "big swimming pool," with a shortage anywhere affecting all nations, even in Asia, which has its own sources.
Hawaii gets most of its crude oil from Alaska, China and Indonesia, rather than from the Middle East, Brown said.
"Even though we currently don't get oil from there, we're very much at risk," he said.
Choong Nam Kim, a former political affairs aide to two South Korean presidents, said that in the event of war with Iraq, the United States and South Korea should be "very careful about any changes of American forces in South Korea during the crisis."
Kim said the next move for North Korea could be testing of an underground nuclear device or a ballistic missile, which could increase tension on the peninsula.
It is unlikely that North Korea would fire a missile at Japan or Hawaii, he said, adding, "An attack would mean the end of North Korea which could not last more than one week."
He said the Communist country also is concerned about becoming the next target for America, after Iraq.
Sheila Smith, an East-West Center fellow who deals with U.S.- Japan security relations, said Japan's cooperation with the United States has been invaluable leading up to a possible war against Iraq, including help in getting the support of other UN Security Council members and the presence of five Japanese supply ships in the Persian Gulf region.
Muhamad Ali, a lecturer at the State Islamic University in Jakarta, Indonesia, said Indonesian Muslims have a feeling of solidarity with Iraqis that is behind public opposition to the war.
If there's war, he said, "moderates will become radicals and the radicals will become more radical."
The East-West Center is an organization funded by Congress to strengthen U.S.-Asian ties and understanding.