War could have ripple effect across the Pacific: Analysts<\/p>\n
David Briscoe, Associated Press, Honolulu, Hawaii<\/p>\n
War in Iraq could have a heavy impact across the Pacific, cutting
\noff Japanese tourism from Indonesia to Hawaii, escalating tension
\non the Korean peninsula, and possibly increasing fuel costs
\neverywhere, analysts said in a forum.<\/p>\n
In a sweeping look at the potential economic, social and
\npolitical repercussions of a war, there was little optimism at
\nthe East-West Center regarding the buildup for a possible U.S.-
\nled attack to remove Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.<\/p>\n
Indonesia expert Richard Baker said it is wrong to think that
\nHawaii, in these dangerous times, could not be the target of a
\nterrorist attack.<\/p>\n
Referring to terrorist activity in such unlikely resort or
\nbusiness centers as Bali, Indonesia, and Singapore, Baker
\ndescribed Oahu as \"a center of cultural tourism, a resort, a
\ncommunications and hugely important military center and one of
\nsymbolic value to a potential terrorist.\"<\/p>\n
He said Indonesia's tourism has been even more heavily
\naffected than Hawaii's because of the terrorist bombing that
\nkilled 202 people, mostly foreign tourists, last October in Bali.<\/p>\n
Honolulu is somewhat protected by the fact that it is
\nrelatively isolated in the middle of the Pacific, he said. \"But
\nterrorists always think two steps farther out of the box\" and
\nneed only to focus on \"one weak link.\"<\/p>\n
Gov. Linda Lingle, on her trip to Washington and New York last
\nmonth, said Hawaii is one of the least likely targets for
\nterrorist attack.<\/p>\n
Jeff Brown, an energy researcher, said that even though Hawaii
\ndoes not depend on Middle Eastern oil, the world's supply is like
\na \"big swimming pool,\" with a shortage anywhere affecting all
\nnations, even in Asia, which has its own sources.<\/p>\n
Hawaii gets most of its crude oil from Alaska, China and
\nIndonesia, rather than from the Middle East, Brown said.<\/p>\n
\"Even though we currently don't get oil from there, we're very
\nmuch at risk,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Choong Nam Kim, a former political affairs aide to two South
\nKorean presidents, said that in the event of war with Iraq, the
\nUnited States and South Korea should be \"very careful about any
\nchanges of American forces in South Korea during the crisis.\"<\/p>\n
Kim said the next move for North Korea could be testing of an
\nunderground nuclear device or a ballistic missile, which could
\nincrease tension on the peninsula.<\/p>\n
It is unlikely that North Korea would fire a missile at Japan
\nor Hawaii, he said, adding, \"An attack would mean the end of
\nNorth Korea which could not last more than one week.\"<\/p>\n
He said the Communist country also is concerned about becoming
\nthe next target for America, after Iraq.<\/p>\n
Sheila Smith, an East-West Center fellow who deals with U.S.-
\nJapan security relations, said Japan's cooperation with the
\nUnited States has been invaluable leading up to a possible war
\nagainst Iraq, including help in getting the support of other UN
\nSecurity Council members and the presence of five Japanese supply
\nships in the Persian Gulf region.<\/p>\n
Muhamad Ali, a lecturer at the State Islamic University in
\nJakarta, Indonesia, said Indonesian Muslims have a feeling of
\nsolidarity with Iraqis that is behind public opposition to the
\nwar.<\/p>\n
If there's war, he said, \"moderates will become radicals and
\nthe radicals will become more radical.\"<\/p>\n
The East-West Center is an organization funded by Congress to
\nstrengthen U.S.-Asian ties and understanding.<\/p>",
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"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
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