Video: Opaque Mining Policy Pushes the Mining Sector into a Crisis Phase

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — CNBC Indonesia hosted Mining Forum 2026 under the theme ‘What is the state of Indonesia’s mining industry?’ which featured strategic dialogue bringing together regulators, policy makers, industry leaders, and stakeholders. Ezra Sibarani, Deputy Chairman for Legal and Tax Affairs at the Indonesia Mining Association (IMA), during Mining Forum 2026, highlighted several developments in the domestic mining sector. One of the points of focus for miners currently is the reduction in the production targets for mineral and coal in the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB 2026).

RKAB 2026 sets coal production at a target of 600 million tonnes, down from 2025’s target of 790 million tonnes, while nickel production is targeted at 260-270 million tonnes, far below RKAB 2025’s 379 million tonnes.

The coal production cut shocked miners because the reduction is substantial and the criteria for setting it are not disclosed. Meanwhile miners have prepared investments to maximise production and to meet customer commitments, so RKAB 2026 could disrupt targets and lead to losses.

Meanwhile, Irwandy Arif, Chairman of the Indonesia Mining Institute, said the mining industry faces a number of headwinds including the RI–US trade agreement and the European Union’s stance on critical minerals, the Nickel Passport Obligation, price downturn cycles, and the sudden policy on RKAB quotas and the impact of the US–Iran war. He assessed that the mining sector faces short- to medium-term pressures, requiring policies to strengthen structural integrity and transparency; otherwise the mining sector could transition toward a crisis.

Aligned with the IMA, Gita Mahyarani, Executive Director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), also said that the lack of clarity around the RKAB 2026 policy has persisted for about a month, with miners lacking certainty on production quotas and quota cuts for APBI members reaching 40-80% without explanation or reasons for the reductions.

Meanwhile Sudirman Widhy, Chairman of the Indonesian Mining Professionals Association (Perhapi), said the production quota reductions in RKAB 2026 disrupt long-term mine planning. This is important because it relates to production and the financial capacity of mines, which could lead to layoffs.

The production uncertainty of mining is also said by Ahmad Kharis, Deputy Chairman of ASPINDO, to affect mining services businesses since 85% of coal mine jobs are conducted by ASPINDO. If coal production in 2026 falls by 25%, then 25% of mining equipment and human resources would be idle and unable to operate. Additionally, the production quota uncertainty would affect banking and multifinance financing, thereby disturbing finances.

Regarding RKAB 2026, Siti Sumilah Rita Susilawati, Secretary at the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal (Ditjen Minerba) of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), representing Director General Tri Winarno, said that RKAB 2026 is not a production limitation but a realignment/adjustment of production. The policy relates to three aspects: the imbalance between supply and demand that suppresses nickel prices, maintaining price stability, and safeguarding RI’s mineral reserves.

Meanwhile Herry Permana, Assistant Deputy for Mineral and Coal Development at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, representing Deputy for Energy and Mineral Resources Coordination Ellen Setiadi, said that the RKAB 2026 policy relates to energy security and RI’s downstream processing.

On the other hand, Bambang Patijaya, Chairman of Commission XII of the Indonesian House of Representatives, stated that the RKAB 2026 policy is new with pros and cons; the production quota adjustments are not intended as a cap on coal and nickel production but to ensure the sustainability of RI’s minerba and require support.

The RKAB 2026 dispute at the start of 2026, according to Ferry Dwi Nugraha, Chairman of the Primary Energy Value Chain Committee of the Indonesian Private Electricity Producers Association (APLSI), has disrupted coal supply to power plants, with reduced supply as miners delay coal shipments due to production quota uncertainty.

For the full dialog, watch Shafinaz Nachiar and Ezra Sibarani (IMA) and Irwandy Arif with Gita Mahyarani (APBI) and Sudirman Widhy (Perhapi) and Ahmad Kharis (ASPINDO) and Siti Sumilah Rita Susilawati (Ditjen Minerba) with Herry Permana and Bambang Patijaya (DPR) and Ferry Dwi Nugrahad from Mining Forum 2026, CNBC Indonesia (Friday, 06/03/2026)