Video: Fate of Mining Businesses as Coal-Nickel Production Quotas Fall

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — CNBC Indonesia hosted Mining Forum 2026 under the theme ‘What is the state of Indonesia’s mining industry?’ and featuring strategic dialogue bringing together regulators, policymakers, industry leaders, and stakeholders. Deputy Chairman for Law and Tax at the Indonesia Mining Association (IMA), Ezra Sibarani, in Mining Forum 2026 outlined several developments in the domestic mining sector. One notable focus is the trimming of production targets for mineral and coal commodities in RKAB 2026. RKAB 2026 sets coal production target at 600 million tonnes, down from 790 million tonnes in 2025, while nickel production is targeted at 260-270 million tonnes, well below RKAB 2025’s 379 million tonnes. The coal production cut has delivered a large shock to miners, the scale of which is substantial and with the criteria for setting the quotas not disclosed. Meanwhile, miners have been preparing investments to maximise production and to fulfill commitments to customers, so RKAB 2026 is likely to disrupt targets and cause losses. Irwandy Arif, Chairman of the Indonesia Mining Institute, said the mining industry faces several headwinds, including the RI-US trade agreement and EU-related issues concerning critical minerals, the Nickel Passport Obligation, a price decline cycle, and abrupt RKAB quota policies that have been influenced by the US-Iran conflict. He assessed that the mining sector faces short- to mid-term pressures, requiring policy measures to push structural strengthening and transparency; otherwise the sector could move toward a crisis.