Video: Coal Production Slashed, Is Supply to Coal-Fired Power Stations Safe?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — CNBC Indonesia hosted the Mining Forum 2026 under the theme ‘What is the State of Indonesia’s Mining Industry?’ which featured strategic dialogue bringing together regulators, policy makers, industry leaders and stakeholders.

Ezra Sibarani, Deputy Chair for Law and Tax at the Indonesia Mining Association (IMA), in Mining Forum 2026 disclosed a number of developments in Indonesia’s mining industry. One issue drawing the attention of mining actors is the reduction in production targets for mineral commodities in the 2026 Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran Biaya (RKAB 2026).

RKAB 2026 sets the coal production target at 600 million tonnes, down from the 2025 target of 790 million tonnes, while nickel production is targeted at 260–270 million tonnes, far below the 2025 RKAB of 379 million tonnes.

The cut in coal production has shocked miners because the decrease is substantial and the criteria for setting the target are unknown. Meanwhile, miners have already prepared investments to maximise production and in relation to customer commitments, so RKAB 2026 will disrupt targets and cause losses.

Meanwhile, Irwandy Arif, Chairman of the Indonesia Mining Institute, said the mining industry faces several sentiment issues, including the RI–US trade agreement and the EU on critical minerals, Nickel Passport obligation, and price cycles. He also mentioned the sudden policy about RKAB quotas and the impact of the US–Iran war.

Irwandy Arif assessed that the mineral and coal sector faces short- and medium-term pressures, thus policy is needed to drive structural strengthening and transparency; otherwise the mining sector could enter a crisis transition phase.

Echoing IMA, Gita Mahyarani, Executive Director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), said the lack of clarity around RKAB 2026 policy has persisted for a month. Miners have not received certainty about production quotas, and quota cuts for APBI members have reached 40–80% without explanation or reasons for the cuts.

Meanwhile, Sudirman Widhy, Chairman of the Indonesian Association of Mining Experts (Perhapi), said that cuts in RKAB 2026 production quotas disrupt long-term mining planning. This matters because it relates to production and the mining sector’s financial capacity, which could lead to layoffs.

The uncertainty around mine production was also noted by Ahmad Kharis, Deputy Chairman I of ASPINDO, who said it will affect mining services businesses because 85% of jobs in coal mines are performed by ASPINDO. If coal production in 2026 falls by 25%, then mining equipment and human resources by 25% will be unable to work and operate. Additionally, the uncertainty about production quotas will affect banking and multifinance financing, thereby disrupting finances.

Regarding RKAB 2026, Siti Sumilah Rita Susilawati, Secretary of the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal (Ditjen Minerba) of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), on behalf of the Director General, Tri Winarno, stated that RKAB 2026 is not a production restriction but a restructuring/adjustment of production. The policy relates to three things: an imbalance between supply and demand that suppresses prices, especially nickel, maintaining price stability, and preserving Indonesia’s mineral and coal reserves.

Meanwhile, Herry Permana, Assistant Deputy for Mineral and Coal Development at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, on behalf of the Deputy for Coordination of Energy and Mineral Resources Ellen Setiadi, said that RKAB 2026 policy relates to energy security and downstream processing in Indonesia.

On the other hand, Bambang Patijaya, Chairman of the XII Commission of the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR), said RKAB 2026 is a new policy that has sparked pro and contra. The quota adjustment is not a restriction on coal and nickel production but a measure to safeguard Indonesia’s mineral and coal sustainability and therefore needs support.

The RKAB 2026 controversy at the start of 2026, described by Ferry Dwi Nugraha, Chairman of the Primary Energy Value Chain Committee of the Association of Private Electricity Producers in Indonesia (APLSI), as having caused disruption to coal supply to power plants and reduced supply as miners delayed shipments due to the production quota uncertainty.

For more details, view the dialogue between Shafinaz Nachiar and Ezra Sibarani (IMA) and Irwandy Arif (Indonesia Mining Institute) with Gita Mahyarani (APBI) and Sudirman Widhy (Perhapi) with Ahmad Kharis (ASPINDO) and Siti Sumilah Rita Susilawati (Ditjen Minerba, ESDM) with Herry Permana (Kemenko) and Bambang Patijaya (DPR) and Ferry Dwi Nugraha (APLSI) at the Mining Forum 2026, CNBC Indonesia (Friday, 6 March 2026).