Video: Coal Production Quota Slump Hits, Heavy Equipment Business at Risk

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — CNBC Indonesia hosted Mining Forum 2026 under the theme ‘What is the State of Indonesia’s Mining Industry?’ which featured strategic dialogues bringing together regulators, policymakers, industry leaders, and related stakeholders.

The Vice Chairman for Legal and Tax Affairs of the Indonesia Mining Association (IMA), Ezra Sibarani, said during Mining Forum 2026 that there have been a number of developments in the domestic mining industry. One aspect that investors in mining are focusing on is the trimming of the production targets for minerba commodities in the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB 2026).

RKAB 2026 sets a coal production target of 600 million tonnes, down from the 2025 target of 790 million tonnes, while nickel production is targeted at 260–270 million tonnes, well below the RKAB 2025 figure of 379 million tonnes. The cut in coal production has been a shock to miners because the reduction is substantial, with the criteria for setting it not disclosed. Meanwhile, miners have already prepared investments to maximise production and in relation to commitments to customers, so RKAB 2026 is set to disrupt targets and could cause losses.

Meanwhile, the Chairman of the Indonesia Mining Institute, Irwandy Arif, said the mining industry faces a number of headwinds including the RI–US and EU trade agreements related to critical minerals, the Nickel Passport Obligation, and a price decline cycle, as well as abrupt policies on RKAB quotas and the impact of the US–Iran conflict. Irwandy Arif notes that the mining sector faces short- to medium-term pressures and therefore policies are needed to foster structural strengthening and transparency; without this, the mining sector risks entering a transition phase toward a crisis.

In line with the IMA, the Executive Director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), Gita Mahyarani, also said that the lack of clarity on the RKAB 2026 policy has persisted for a month, with miners lacking certainty on quotas and with quota cuts for APBI members reaching 40–80% without explanation or reasons for the cuts.

Meanwhile, Sudirman Widhy, the Chairman of the Indonesian Mining Experts Association (Perhapi), said that the production quota cuts in RKAB 2026 significantly disrupt long-term mine planning. This matters because it affects production and mining companies’ financial capacity, which could lead to layoffs of mine workers.

The uncertainty surrounding mine production was also noted by Ahmad Kharis, the Vice Chairman General of ASPINDO, who said it will affect mining services businesses because 85% of jobs at coal mines are carried out by ASPINDO members. If coal production in 2026 falls by 25%, then 25% of mining equipment and human resources will also be unable to work and operate. Moreover, the production quota uncertainty will affect banking and multifinance financing, thereby disrupting finances.

Regarding RKAB 2026, Siti Sumilah Rita Susilawati, the Secretary of the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal (Ditjen Minerba) at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), representing the Director General, Tri Winarno, said that RKAB 2026 is not a production cap but a rebalancing/adjustment of production. The policy relates to three aspects: a supply-demand imbalance that suppresses prices, especially nickel, maintaining price stability, and protecting Indonesia’s mineral and coal reserves.

Meanwhile, Herry Permana, Assistant Deputy for Mineral and Coal Development at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, representing Deputy for Coordination of Energy and Mineral Resources Elen Setiadi, said that the RKAB 2026 policy relates to energy security and Indonesia’s downstream development.

On the other hand, Bambang Patijaya, Chairman of Commission XII of the DPR RI, said that the RKAB 2026 policy is a new policy that has spurred pro and contra sentiments. The quota adjustment is not a restriction on coal and nickel production but is aimed at ensuring the sustainability of Indonesia’s mining sector and deserves support.

The RKAB 2026 dispute early in 2026, as stated by Ferry Dwi Nugraha, Chairman of the Primary Energy Value Chain Committee of the Indonesian Private Power Producers Association (APLSI), has disrupted coal supply to power plants and reduced supply as miners delay coal shipments due to the uncertainty over production quotas.

For more details, watch the dialogue between Shafinaz Nachiar and Ezra Sibarani of the IMA, Irwandy Arif of the Indonesian Mining Institute with APBI’s Gita Mahyarani and Perhapi’s Sudirman Widhy, ASPINDO’s Ahmad Kharis and Ditjen Minerba secretary Siti Sumilah Rita Susilawati with the Assistant Deputy for Mineral and Coal Development at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Herry Permana, Commission XII DPR member Bambang Patijaya, and APLSI’s Ferry Dwi Nugraha at Mining Forum 2026, CNBC Indonesia (Friday, 06/03/2026).