US War Plans in Iran Fall Apart, Objectives Unclear – Trump Cornered

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Entering the third week of the war with Iran, United States President Donald Trump is facing increasing pressure both domestically and internationally. The war, which he previously described as merely a “short excursion,” has now evolved into a more complex crisis, marked by a surge in global energy prices, allies pulling away, and the deployment of thousands of additional troops.

Trump maintained a defensive stance over the weekend. He even labelled NATO member countries as cowards for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, he insisted that the military operations launched by Washington are proceeding according to plan.

His assertion that the battles have been won militarily clashes with the reality on the ground. Iran continues to resist, including disrupting oil and gas supplies from the Gulf region and launching missile attacks in various areas.

Trump, who during his campaign promised to steer the US away from “foolish” military interventions, is now seen as not fully controlling the direction of the conflict he helped initiate. The absence of a clear exit strategy also risks political repercussions, both for his presidential legacy and for the Republican Party ahead of the midterm congressional elections in November.

“Trump has built a box for himself called the Iran war, and he can’t find a way out of it,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator who has worked in both Republican and Democratic administrations, quoted by Reuters on Sunday (22/3/2026). “That is the source of his greatest frustration.”

A White House official rejected that assessment. He emphasised that many of Iran’s top leaders have been eliminated in targeted assassination operations, most of its naval fleet has been sunk, and the majority of its ballistic missile arsenal has been destroyed.

“This is an undeniable military success,” the official stated.

Limits of Trump’s Power

Developments over the past week highlight the limitations of Trump’s influence in diplomatic, military, and political spheres.

According to another White House official speaking anonymously, Trump was surprised when several NATO allies and international partners refused to send their naval forces to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.

This situation has led some White House staff to suggest that Trump seek an exit route promptly. A source familiar with internal discussions said several advisers are urging the president to find a quick way out by limiting the scope of military operations. However, it remains unclear whether that advice will sufficiently influence Trump’s decisions.

Some analysts believe the allies’ cool response is not only because they are reluctant to be dragged into a war they were not consulted on beforehand. The refusal is also seen as a reaction to Trump’s disparagement of traditional US alliances since returning to office 14 months ago.

Differences in perspective are also emerging between Washington and Israel. Trump stated that he was unaware beforehand of Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field. However, Israeli officials said the strike had indeed been coordinated with the United States.

According to analysts, Trump is now at a crossroads in the operation dubbed Operation Epic Fury, without a truly clear direction.

One option is to escalate the US military offensive, possibly seizing Iran’s oil export hub on Kharg Island or positioning troops along the Iranian coast to hunt missile launchers. However, such a move risks drawing Washington into a long-term military commitment that is likely unsupported by the US public.

Another choice is to declare victory and withdraw from the conflict. But that step could leave America’s Gulf allies feeling abandoned in the face of a still-strong and hostile Iran.

Iran is also assessed to retain the potential to develop simple nuclear weapons and maintain its influence over shipping routes in the Gulf, although Tehran denies pursuing nuclear weapons.

A Reuters report on Friday also mentioned that the US military is sending thousands of additional marines and sailors to the Middle East, although no decision has been made to deploy ground forces directly to Iranian territory.

Political and Economic Pressure

The war is also revealing the waning influence of Trump within his own political movement, MAGA. Several prominent influencers have begun criticising the conflict.

Although his support base largely still stands behind him, analysts believe that support could waver if fuel prices continue to rise and more American troops are sent to the region.

Republican strategist Dave Wilson said the economic impact will soon be felt by the public.

“As the economic impact starts to be felt,” he said, “people will begin to say: ‘Why do I have to pay high petrol prices again? … Why does the Strait of Hormuz now determine whether I can go on holiday next month or not?’”

Miscalculations

Since the war began on 28 February, several officials in the Trump administration have begun to realise that the consequences of this conflict should have been mapped out more thoroughly from the start. Two sources familiar with White House internal thinking said that awareness is growing as the war progresses.

However, the first White House official interviewed by Reuters rejected that view. He insisted that the military campaign has been thoroughly planned and prepared for various possibilities.

Analysts consider Trump’s biggest mistake to be his erroneous estimation of how Iran would respond to the conflict they view as an existential threat.

Tehran retaliated by launching remaining missiles and a fleet of drones.