US-Israel War Against Iran Escalates, Gulf States Trapped at Crossroads

Missile and drone strikes that have struck Gulf capital cities and major urban centres in retaliation for US and Israeli attacks on Iran have shaken the region’s image as an oasis of stability amid a volatile Middle East.

Gulf states now face what analysts describe as an impossible choice: retaliate and risk being perceived as warring alongside Israel, or remain passive whilst their cities burn.

To date, voices from within the region have called for restraint. They warn that Gulf states must not be drawn into a war they do not want and do not consider theirs to fight.

Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar, stated in a post on platform X that GCC nations “must not be drawn into direct confrontation with Iran”, despite Tehran “violating the sovereignty of member states and acting as the aggressor”.

“There are forces that want GCC member states to engage directly with Iran,” Sheikh Hamad wrote. “However, direct confrontation between GCC member states and Iran, if it occurs, would drain the resources of both sides and provide an opportunity for many powers to control us under the guise of helping us emerge from the crisis.”

He urged GCC states to act as a united hand in facing any aggression whilst avoiding the risk of being “eliminated one by one”.

This perspective reflects a broader regional sentiment that this conflict is not theirs to fight.

Attacks and Retaliation

Iran’s attack came in response to a major combined US-Israeli offensive that began on Saturday. The operation killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior military commanders, struck military and government locations across Iran. A school was also hit, with at least 148 people killed in that strike alone.

Tehran then retaliated with missiles and drones targeting Israel and US military assets across the Gulf region. At least three people were killed in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with at least 58 injured by Sunday evening.

Missiles and their debris, after being intercepted, struck iconic buildings and airports in Dubai, high-rise buildings in Manama, and Kuwait airport. Smoke was also seen rising from several neighbourhoods in Doha.

Saudi Arabia stated that Iran also attacked Riyadh and its eastern regions. Qatar reported 16 people injured in its territory, whilst five were injured in Oman, 32 in Kuwait, and four in Bahrain.

The UAE even withdrew its ambassador to Israel, a strong signal of Gulf state frustration with the direction of the conflict’s escalation.

The War They Sought to Prevent

Gulf states are said not to desire this confrontation. In the weeks before the attacks, Oman mediated indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

Oman’s Foreign Minister, Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi, even stated that peace was “within reach” after Iran agreed not to stockpile enriched uranium and would drastically dilute existing reserves.

Yet within hours, the US and Israel launched missiles.

Analysts questioned why the war escalated when Oman had secured an agreement described as “better than the Obama agreement”. Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, had lobbied Washington intensively not to use Gulf bases for operations against Iran.

Critics also questioned Iran’s response, describing Tehran as being in “panic mode” after losing its leadership. Iran’s claim that it targeted US bases, not host countries, they argued, demonstrated a “lack of understanding of international relations”.

Analysts expressed confidence that the GCC would remain firm in refusing to allow their airspace to be used for US or Israeli operations.

A Painful Dilemma

Despite attempting to maintain distance from the conflict, analysts assess that Gulf states now find themselves in an extremely difficult position. Monica Marks, professor of Middle Eastern politics at New York University Abu Dhabi, told Al Jazeera that for citizens and leaders in the Gulf region, witnessing Manama, Doha, and Dubai being bombed was “as strange and unimaginable as watching Charlotte, Seattle, or Miami being bombed for Americans”.

According to Marks, Gulf states “have watched this war coming slowly for weeks, even months, and have expended considerable effort to stop it”.

Rob Geist Pinfold, lecturer at King’s College London, also assessed that GCC states have worked hard to prevent military action breaking out. “The GCC states do not want this war. They tried to lobby against it,” he said.

However, if they ultimately become involved and are perceived as cooperating with Israel, this would pose a major challenge to their legitimacy. Conversely, remaining passive whilst Iran repeatedly launches attacks carries its own risks. Pinfold describes the situation as a complex dilemma.

“Ultimately, these governments are responsive to public opinion,” he said. “They want to appear to be protecting their people, protecting their territory, and protecting their sovereignty.”

He estimated that Gulf states may take steps in their own manner, possibly through collective GCC efforts such as the Peninsula Shield Force (PSF), rather than simply opening their airspace to American and Israeli operations. The PSF was established in 1984 and evolved into a Unified Military Command in 2013.

“They do not want to appear to be working for or working with Israel,” Pinfold said. “They want to appear to be leading their own efforts.”