US-Israel Strike Iran: Economists Warn of Soaring Global Oil Prices

Jakarta – The United States and Israel military strikes on Iran on Saturday, 28 February 2026 have the potential to drive up global oil prices significantly.

Andry Asmoro, Chief Economist at Bank Mandiri, has assessed that the escalation of the Middle East conflict increases the risk of volatility in the global oil market.

“The global oil market is preparing to face major volatility,” he said in a written statement on Saturday, 28 February 2026.

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz risk triggering sharp increases in oil prices.

Nailul Huda, an economist from the Centre for Economics and Law Studies, noted that global oil prices have already reached $73 per barrel. This figure has risen from $65 per barrel in early February 2026.

Nailul predicted that oil prices could reach $120 per barrel. He compared this situation to the time when Russia invaded Ukraine.

“The certain impact is that the increase in oil prices will be quite significant. What the US is doing is the same as what Russia did to Ukraine, which will cause global turbulence,” he told Kompas.com on Saturday.

“When oil prices rise, the burden of government subsidies will balloon, especially for fuel,” said Nailul.

This surge potentially puts pressure on the state budget if there is no budget reallocation for fuel subsidies.

“Relying on state revenue will be futile when the global economy becomes increasingly uncertain. Relying on new debt is also difficult given reports from Moody’s and the latest from S&P stating that our fiscal management conditions are poor,” he added.