US-Iran War Update: Ceasefire Collapses, Warning in the Strait of Hormuz
Tensions in the US-Iran conflict have intensified after attempts at a ceasefire and peace negotiations failed completely, triggering blockade threats and exacerbating the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s vital energy route.
Washington is preparing to blockade Iranian ports, while Teheran has warned of serious consequences should there be any military intervention in the region. This situation has immediately shaken the global oil market and placed increasing pressure on shipping traffic in Hormuz.
Here is the latest update on the situation in Iran, as compiled by CNBC Indonesia on Monday (13/4/2026).
- Trump Claims Effective Blockade of Iranian Ports
US President Donald Trump has affirmed that the planned blockade of Iranian ports will be a strategic move to pressure Teheran’s economy, particularly in the energy sector. The statement was made to the media before he departed for Washington, DC.
Trump stated that the operation would be supported by several other countries, though he did not specify the parties involved. He claimed that this international coordination aims to halt Iran’s oil sales to the global market.
“This blockade will be very effective,” said Trump, as quoted by Al Jazeera. He also emphasised that the move is a response to the latest diplomatic failure between the two countries, which had previously been hoped to ease tensions.
- Oil Prices Surge After Blockade Announcement
The blockade announcement immediately rocked the global energy market. Crude oil prices surged sharply at the start of trading, reflecting investor concerns over supply disruptions from the Middle East region.
US crude oil rose 8% to $104.24 per barrel, or approximately Rp1.7 million. Meanwhile, Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed 7% to $102.29 per barrel.
This spike extends the price volatility since the conflict heated up. Before the joint US-Israel attack on 28 February, Brent prices were around $70 (Rp1.19 million) per barrel. However, after the conflict intensified, prices once surged above $119 (Rp2 million) before correcting.
Last Friday, ahead of negotiation efforts in Pakistan, Brent prices fell 0.8% to $95.20 (Rp1.6 million) per barrel. However, market sentiment has sharply reversed following the blockade announcement, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments.
- Gulf States Seek Alternatives, Hormuz Remains Closed
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has grown increasingly tense after Iran confirmed that no US military vessels have successfully passed through. Teheran has also threatened action against any attempts to violate the strategic route.
For Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, this situation is highly concerning. The Strait of Hormuz is their primary route for distributing oil to global markets, so even minor disruptions could have major economic impacts on the region.
The latest data shows a drastic decline in shipping traffic. In the last 24 hours, only three vessels have successfully transited: two flying the Chinese flag and one from Liberia, each with a capacity of around 2 million barrels. This is far below normal conditions, which see about 100 ships per day.
Additionally, two vessels attempted to pass but ultimately turned back. The exact reason is unknown, but security conditions are suspected to be the main factor.
As a mitigation step, Gulf states are beginning to seek alternative routes. Qatar has announced the easing of maritime restrictions, while Saudi Arabia has upgraded its East-West pipeline, which can now transport up to 7 million barrels per day without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia is preparing the Manifa oil field, which can add up to 300,000 barrels per day to supplies.
- Nuclear Negotiations Predicted Not to Proceed Quickly
Diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran are expected not to yield an agreement in the near term. Federica Mogherini, former EU foreign policy chief and JCPOA negotiator, has reminded that such negotiation processes require a long time and complex technical work.
“It took 12 years and enormous technical work to reach the previous agreement. Does anyone really think a deal can be reached in 21 hours?” she wrote on platform X.
The JCPOA agreement itself was the result of lengthy negotiations between Iran and world powers, including the US, China, Russia, the UK, France, and Germany. The deal allowed for the lifting of sanctions on Iran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear programme.
However, the US unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018 during the Trump administration, which became one of the triggers for ongoing tensions to this day.
- Iran Prepares for Prolonged War, Global Impacts Loom
From Iran’s side, strong signals continue to be sent. Zohreh Kharazmi, an academic at the University of Teheran, has affirmed that her country is prepared to face a prolonged conflict to defend its sovereignty, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz.
“The United States is not in a position to dictate how the Iranian people should act, or which ships are allowed to pass,” she said.
She also noted that Iran has demonstrated a selective approach to foreign vessels, where countries cooperating with Teheran receive better treatment.
Furthermore, Kharazmi warned of the global impacts from a potential blockade. According to her, the Strait of Hormuz is not only important for oil distribution but also for other strategic commodities such as fertiliser and helium.
“A blockade in this area could cripple global industry,” she said. She added that Iran is “prepared for a prolonged war”.
- Trump’s Statements vs US Military Create Confusion
Amid the escalation, confusion has arisen regarding the blockade’s implementation. Trump’s statements are seen as not fully aligned with official explanations from the US Central Command (CENTCOM).