US–Iran War Triggers Rift Within Saudi Arabia and the Israel–UAE Alliance

Escalation of the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is beginning to redraw the Gulf’s geopolitics. The tensions threaten regional stability and are starting to tear at the cohesion of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), particularly between its two main powers: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Although Riyadh and Abu Dhabi remain committed to their long-term partnership, the UAE’s increasing closeness with Israel has become a subject of serious debate. The recent secret visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the UAE to meet President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed—confirmed by Israel but denied by the UAE—has further fuelled speculation about the depth of this new alliance. Nawaf Obaid, a fellow at King’s College London and former Saudi royal adviser, called this dynamic a regional version of Thucydides Trap. “It resembles a rising power (the Emirate) seeking to extend its influence over the established dominant power (Saudi Arabia),” he told Newsweek. However, Obaid stressed that Saudi Arabia’s position as the pivot of the Arab world is not easily unsettled. Geographical scale, population, financial depth, military capacity, and religious legitimacy as custodian of the two holy mosques (Mecca and Medina) are structural realities that cannot be replicated by a small country like the Emirates. An Emirati push for strategic autonomy is evident in several bold steps that have surprised global markets: In response to these shifts, Saudi Arabia has not stood still. Riyadh has started broadening its diplomatic and military contacts by forming an informal bloc called the Quartet, involving Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan. Pakistan, as the only nuclear-armed Islamic state, even signed a defence pact with Riyadh last September. For Riyadh, Israel is seen as a regional disruptor that fuels instability in Lebanon, Syria, and even Qatar. This creates a clear gap with the UAE, which is doubling down on its connection with Israel as a shield against Iran. Despite sharp differences, analysts see a total boycott like Qatar in 2017 as unlikely. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed continue to keep channels open to prevent costly miscalculations, especially after a drone attack on the Barakah nuclear plants in the UAE. The war against Iran has forced Gulf states to choose their own security paths, ultimately creating a geopolitical landscape that is more fluid, ad hoc, and uncertain going forward.