US-Iran Peace Prospects Cause Oil Prices to Plunge Below US$100
Jakarta - Global oil prices corrected during Tuesday morning trading (14 April 2026), after a sharp rally the previous day. The market began responding to signals that diplomatic channels between the United States (US) and Iran remain open, slightly alleviating concerns over supply disruptions.
According to Refinitiv data at 08:35 WIB, Brent was at US$97.34 per barrel, down 2.03% from Monday’s close of US$99.36 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was recorded at US$96.80 per barrel, weakening 2.30% from the previous level of US$99.08 per barrel.
Citing Reuters, the decline came a day after the market had surged strongly. On Monday, Brent closed up more than 4%, while WTI strengthened nearly 3%. That spike was triggered by the US military’s initiation of a blockade against Iranian ports, including the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Investors are now weighing the possibility of new negotiations after several sources indicated that Washington-Tehran communications are still ongoing.
US President Donald Trump even stated on Monday, 13 April 2026, US time, that Iran “wants to make a deal.” This tone was sufficiently reassuring to a market that had previously braced for the worst-case scenario.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point as it is a vital global energy route. Disruptions in the area could hinder oil flows from the Middle East to Asia, Europe, and America. ANZ data estimates that around 10 million barrels per day of crude supply have been effectively impacted. If the blockade persists, an additional 3-4 million barrels per day of oil shipments risk being held up.
Although prices dipped this morning, oil levels are still much higher than last week. On 8 April, Brent was at US$94.75 per barrel and now holds near US$97. This means the geopolitical risk premium has not entirely vanished from the market.
On the other hand, fundamental factors have also shifted. OPEC cut its projection for global demand growth in the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day in its latest monthly report. This revision signals that global energy consumption is not as strong as previously estimated.
International institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and IEA have also urged countries worldwide not to hoard energy supplies or impose export bans. If such panic actions occur, price pressures could return quickly.