US-Iran Conflict Could 'Claim China as a Victim', Here's Why

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The risk of conflict involving Iran is considered likely to put significant pressure on China’s economy. This is mainly through rising energy prices, disruption of shipping routes, and stricter enforcement of international sanctions.

The President of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies and a visiting lecturer at HSE University, Murad Sadygzade, believes that Iran’s position is not only strategically important regionally, but also crucial in the context of global competition. According to him, escalation in Iran could increase the cost of China’s economic growth without direct confrontation.

“Iran is at the crossroads of the global energy market, major maritime routes, and a sanctions regime. Disruptions at this point will quickly increase China’s economic costs,” said Sadygzade in his analysis, as quoted by RT, Thursday (26/2/2026).

China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil and is very sensitive to fluctuations in energy prices. Uncertainty in the Persian Gulf region, especially related to Iran, is considered likely to trigger a surge in global oil prices. This condition has a direct impact on China’s industrial costs and domestic inflation.

“For China, rising oil prices act like an additional tax. Production costs increase and macroeconomic management becomes more challenging,” said Sadygzade.

In addition to prices, risks also come from energy distribution routes. Iran has strategic influence over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. Even without physical closure, signals of military escalation can raise insurance premiums and shipping rates.

“The perception of risk alone is enough to disrupt global logistics. China, which is highly dependent on sea routes for its energy imports, will bear additional costs,” he explained.

The next pressure comes from the sanctions architecture. Iran has been under strict sanctions for years, but its oil exports continue to flow through shadow trade mechanisms, with China as the main buyer. China’s average purchase of Iranian oil is estimated at around 1.38 million barrels per day, or more than 13% of China’s oil imports by sea.

“If sanctions enforcement is tightened, Chinese importers will face higher transaction costs and lose access to discounted oil supplies from Iran,” said Sadygzade.

On the other hand, the United States (US) is considered to have stronger energy resilience compared to previous decades, along with increased oil production and exports. However, a surge in global energy prices still risks putting pressure on consumers and US allies who are net importers.

However, Sadygzade reminded that the strategy of pressuring China through the Iran conflict also has its limits. Prolonged escalation could push Beijing to accelerate energy diversification, increase strategic reserves, and develop a trade system that is more resistant to sanctions.

“Short-term pressure may be felt, but in the long term it may encourage China to build new resilience,” he said.

Thus, the Iran conflict is considered potentially a source of economic pressure for China through various channels at once. However, the effectiveness of this pressure depends on the scale and duration of the escalation, as well as the ability of global actors to manage the follow-up impact on the world economy.