US Intelligence: Iranian Regime Strong—Will Not Collapse Despite Bombardment
US intelligence reports have revealed that Iran’s leadership remains substantially intact and poses no immediate risk of collapse following almost two weeks of relentless bombardment by the United States and Israel, according to three informed sources.
A substantial body of intelligence analysis provides “consistent assessment that the regime is not in danger of collapse and continues to control the Iranian public,” stated one source, according to Reuters and Al Arabiya, 12 March 2026.
The latest assessment was completed in recent days, the source said. Facing mounting political pressure over soaring oil costs, President Donald Trump has hinted that he will end the largest US military operation since 2003 “soon.”
However, finding an acceptable resolution to the conflict may prove difficult if hardline Iranian leaders maintain their current positions. The intelligence report underscores that Iran’s clerical leadership remains strong, despite Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei being killed on 28 February, the first day of US and Israeli strikes.
Israeli officials in closed-door discussions have also acknowledged that there is no certainty the war will cause the collapse of Iran’s clerical government, according to a senior Israeli official who spoke to Reuters.
Sources emphasised that the situation on the ground remains uncertain and dynamics within Iran could shift.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.
Since launching their campaign, the US and Israel have struck various Iranian targets, including air defences, nuclear sites, and senior leadership members.
The Trump administration provided various justifications for the war. In announcing the start of US operations, Trump urged Iranians to “take over your government.” However, his senior advisers have since denied that the objective was to overthrow Iran’s leadership.
In addition to Khamenei, the strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and several top-ranking commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that controls much of the economy.
Yet US intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and interim leaders who assumed power following Khamenei’s death continue to control the country. The Assembly of Experts, a body of senior Shia clerics, declared Khamenei’s son Mojtaba as Iran’s new supreme leader earlier this week.
According to another source familiar with the matter, Israel does not intend to allow the remnants of the previous government to remain intact. However, it remains unclear how the current US-Israeli military campaign would overthrow the Iranian government.
It would likely require a ground assault that would enable Iranians to protest safely in the streets, the source said.
The Trump administration has not yet ruled out the possibility of sending US troops to Iran.