US Employment Data Stronger than Expected, Rupiah at Risk of Further Weakening

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The rupiah exchange rate is still under pressure following US labour market data that indicates a stronger economy than anticipated. This situation has sparked market concerns over the possibility of the Federal Reserve, or the Fed, maintaining high interest rates for longer. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that non-farm payrolls, or employment absorption outside the agricultural sector, added 115,000 jobs in April 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis. Despite this, the April figure still exceeded the Dow Jones consensus projection, which estimated only 55,000 new jobs. The data demonstrates that the US labour market remains fairly solid amid expectations of a global economic slowdown and hopes for benchmark interest rate cuts this year. President Director of PT Doo Financial Futures, Ariston Tjendra, stated that the better-than-expected US employment data diminishes the chances of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. According to him, the market views that the Fed will keep interest rates high for longer if US economic data continues to show resilience, particularly in the labour sector. “This could delay the prospects of US benchmark interest rate cuts going forward, so this data supports the US dollar’s value. With the shrinking expectations for US benchmark interest rate cuts, it still keeps the US dollar exchange rate strong against other currencies, including the rupiah,” said Ariston when contacted by Kompas.com on Friday (8/5/2026) evening. This condition leads global investors to continue preferring US dollar-based assets, which are considered safer and offer higher returns. As a result, the pressure on the rupiah is still considered quite significant. “Especially if key US data such as employment and inflation continue to show strength. Therefore, the rupiah is still not safe; there is still potential for weakening,” he explained.