US Economy Receives New 'Miracle'

The United States is experiencing a surprising surge in economic productivity that has astonished economists worldwide. After more than a decade plagued by weak productivity growth following the 2008 global financial crisis, US labour productivity has grown at around 2% per year over the past five years—twice as high as the average of the 2010s era. This trend continues into early 2026. From the beginning of 2025 to March 2026, US work productivity remains solidly growing, at about 1.2% (per American worker, including farmers) and 2.1% (per hour for non-agricultural businesses) per year. Interestingly, this revival is not entirely driven by artificial intelligence (AI), but rather by a combination of business efficiency, cheap energy, and the flexibility of the American economy. US Productivity Surges, But Not Because of AI Despite the booming trend of AI like ChatGPT and large language models, economists assess that this technology has not yet become the main factor behind the American productivity surge. This is because the productivity increase has been evident since the early 2020s, while widespread AI use has only occurred in the last one to two years. Looking at economic history, the impact of technological revolutions usually takes a relatively long time to truly reflect in national productivity data. The largest US productivity increase has actually occurred in the professional services and management sector. This sector is not a creator of technology, but the most aggressive user of technology. American companies have begun to achieve efficiency in costs and time by utilising smartphones, cloud computing, videoconferencing, and various other digital systems. These facilities have actually been developing since the 2010s, but their contribution to national productivity only became apparent a decade later. The minimal contribution of AI to this productivity surge is even clearer from comparing the growth figures recorded in the table above. Although this sector has become the most productive, its figures are not much different from their average since the 2000s. Cheap Energy Becomes America’s Secret Weapon In addition to digital transformation, the booming energy sector has become an important factor behind the strength of the US economy’s productivity. The shale-fracking revolution in the 2010s successfully transformed America from an energy-importing country into one of the world’s largest energy exporters. In 2023, the US’s net energy exports even reached about half the volume of Saudi Arabia’s net exports. The abundance of domestic energy has made electricity prices in America far cheaper than in other advanced countries. This condition provides significant advantages to energy-intensive industries such as chemicals and mining, which in many European countries are facing pressure due to high energy costs. Cheap energy allows American companies to maintain high production without being overly burdened by operational costs. In the long term, this condition strengthens the competitiveness of US industries in the global market. Flexible Economy Makes the US Recover Quickly Another factor considered key to the revival of US productivity is its economic flexibility. When the Covid-19 pandemic struck, the American government preferred to provide direct cash assistance to the public rather than retaining workers in old companies, as done by many European countries. As a result, when the economy began to recover, the US workforce moved more quickly to more efficient and productive companies. This mechanism indirectly accelerates national economic efficiency. Interestingly, this productivity momentum persists despite America facing various new pressures. Economists believe that if AI truly begins to integrate into the workforce in the coming years, the US economic productivity surge has the potential to become even greater.