US Defence Shares Rise Following Attack on Iran
Jakarta — The US and Israeli attack on Tehran, Iran, on Saturday 28 February 2026, not only shook energy markets but also drove up defence sector shares on the US stock exchange.
Rising oil prices and fears of conflict escalation prompted market participants to pursue shares in weapons manufacturers, which have long served as a barometer when geopolitical tensions increase.
“This is very real,” said Bob McNally, former energy adviser to the 41st US President George H. W. Bush, according to CNBC on Saturday 28 February 2026.
He predicted that crude oil futures prices would rise significantly when trading opened on Sunday at 18:00 local time, with increases in the range of 5–7 US dollars, or approximately Rp 81,500–Rp 114,100 per barrel (at the rate of Rp 16,300).
Before the attack began on Friday 27 February 2026, Brent crude oil closed at 72.48 US dollars per barrel, or approximately Rp 1,181,424, up 2.45 per cent or 1.73 US dollars.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at 67.02 US dollars per barrel, or approximately Rp 1,092,426, up 2.78 per cent or 1.81 US dollars.
Concerns increased further after Iran attacked US forward positions in Bahrain and Al Udeid airport in Qatar. If retaliatory strikes expand, oil prices could surge again.
Three major emitters on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)—Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX, and Northrop Grumman (NOC)—are seen as potentially benefiting from the situation.
According to morningstar.com on Sunday 1 March 2026, defence sector shares often serve as a barometer for US geopolitical conditions. When armed conflicts erupt, defence company share prices tend to rise as the market anticipates increased military spending.
Weapons systems are viewed as long-term investments rather than single-use items. Each system requires periodic maintenance, and when conflict occurs, maintenance needs become increasingly urgent.
The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) noted that approximately 70 per cent of total defence system procurement costs are actually allocated to maintenance and upkeep.