US Charges Former Cuban Leader Raul Castro: 3 Possible Scenarios
The United States has charged the 94-year-old former Cuban president Raul Castro with murder. This has sparked speculation that Havana could be a target for regime change by Washington, D.C.
Amid the pressures feeding Cuba’s most significant fuel and energy crisis, a number of U.S. officials have consistently called for an end to the island’s 66-year-old communist government.
On one hand, President Donald Trump says he believes escalation is unnecessary. On the other hand, the White House has vowed not to tolerate a ‘rogue state’ that is only 144 kilometres from the U.S. coast.
What happens next is hard to predict: economic collapse, domestic unrest, or a U.S. military intervention.
Here are three possible scenarios.
The United States could capture Raul Castro
The charges against Raul Castro relating to the downing of two civil aircraft in 1996 by Cuban fighter jets readily sparked speculation that U.S. forces could launch an operation to capture him and bring him to a court in America.
Such an operation is not without precedent.
In January, U.S. special forces carried out a lightning operation in Venezuela to capture President Nicolás Maduro, a longtime ally of Cuba, and bring him to New York to face drug and weapons charges.
In 1989, Operation Just Cause, involving thousands of U.S. troops, invaded Panama to overthrow and detain the then leader Manuel Noriega.
‘We must not rule out any option,’ said Florida Senator Rick Scott to reporters.
‘The same thing that happened to Maduro should happen to Raul Castro,’ he added.
Experts say that from a military standpoint, capturing Castro would be feasible but fraught with risk and complexity, including his advanced age and potential resistance.
‘In some respects it might be easier to extract him,’ said Adam Isacson, a regional expert with the Washington Office on Latin America, a think tank.
‘He has symbolic value. That is to say, he is closely guarded. But that would, of course, be possible,’ he added.
Many Cuban exiles in the U.S. hope the Havana communist government will be toppled soon (Getty Images)
However, removing Castro, who stepped down as president in 2018, might not have a significant effect on the Cuban government as a whole, even though for years he has been seen as a symbolic figure of influence.
‘I think [the arrest] would not greatly affect the power structure in Cuba any longer. He is 94 years old,’ Isacson said. ‘The Castro family dynasty is influential, but it is no longer at the centre of what they built.’
‘For domestic political reasons, it might be a blow,’ he added.
‘They would relish shaming the Castro family and jailing one of the original revolutionaries from 1959. But its strategic value is questionable.’
The United States could push for regime change in Cuba
One possibility cited by U.S. officials, including Trump, is for new leadership to take power in Havana.
Experts note that this approach resembles the replacement of Maduro by Delcy Rodríguez in Venezuela. The Venezuelan government remains intact, but maintains direct relations with the Trump administration.
‘If Cuba asks for help, we will talk,’ he wrote on Truth Social on 12 May.
Several parties believe the U.S. will imitate what happened in Venezuela, namely Delcy Rodríguez taking power from Maduro (Getty Images)
A few days after Trump wrote on Truth Social, CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with Cuban officials, including Castro’s grandson Raul Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, and Interior Minister Lázaro Álvarez Casas.
‘We will engage with Cuba… ultimately they must make a decision. Their system isn’t functioning,’ Foreign Minister Marco Rubio told reporters in Florida on Thursday (21/05).
The changes the U.S. seeks could include opening the economy, inviting more foreign investment, and greater involvement of Cuban exile groups, as well as a commitment to ending the presence of Russian or Chinese intelligence agencies on the island.
Crucially, such changes could keep the Cuban government largely intact.
‘Just as they want to avoid instability in Venezuela, they also want to avoid instability in Cuba,’ said Michael Shifter, a Latin American studies professor at Georgetown University and former head of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank.
‘To force regime change would be too risky,’ he added.
Some experts consulted by the BBC say the challenge for the Trump administration is the lack of a figure inside Cuba ready to take over.
‘I don’t think there is a Delcy Rodríguez figure in Cuba, and power operates differently there than in Venezuela,’ Shifter said.
‘It’s hard to discern what they are seeking, but I think they are looking for some form of governing structure.’
Cuba could collapse
The third possibility is that Cuba could implode under economic pressure, resulting in hours-long blackouts and food shortages.
‘There will be no escalation. I don’t think it’s necessary,’ Trump said this week.
‘The place is collapsing. It’s a disaster, and they have lost control to some extent.’
Yet scholars say the Cuba situation is far more complex, as the mechanisms by which the Cuban government controls its people largely remain intact, even in a harsh economic period.
‘You must distinguish between Cuba’s economy and the state and government of Cuba,’ Shifter said.
‘The Cuban economy can - and is - collapsing… but the state remains functional, particularly in security terms,’ he added.
Cuba’s collapse could also pose challenges for the Trump administration if a large number of Cuban citizens flee the country, especially to the United States.
Moreover, the arrival of Cuban migrants recently has faced