The United States has charged the 94-year-old former Cuban president\nRaul Castro with murder. This has sparked speculation that Havana could\nbe a target for regime change by Washington, D.C.<\/p>\n
Amid the pressures feeding Cuba\u2019s most significant fuel and energy\ncrisis, a number of U.S. officials have consistently called for an end\nto the island\u2019s 66-year-old communist government.<\/p>\n
On one hand, President Donald Trump says he believes escalation is\nunnecessary. On the other hand, the White House has vowed not to\ntolerate a \u2018rogue state\u2019 that is only 144 kilometres from the U.S.\ncoast.<\/p>\n
What happens next is hard to predict: economic collapse, domestic\nunrest, or a U.S. military intervention.<\/p>\n
Here are three possible scenarios.<\/p>\n
The United States could capture Raul Castro<\/p>\n
The charges against Raul Castro relating to the downing of two civil\naircraft in 1996 by Cuban fighter jets readily sparked speculation that\nU.S. forces could launch an operation to capture him and bring him to a\ncourt in America.<\/p>\n
Such an operation is not without precedent.<\/p>\n
In January, U.S. special forces carried out a lightning operation in\nVenezuela to capture President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, a longtime ally of Cuba,\nand bring him to New York to face drug and weapons charges.<\/p>\n
In 1989, Operation Just Cause, involving thousands of U.S. troops,\ninvaded Panama to overthrow and detain the then leader Manuel\nNoriega.<\/p>\n
\u2018We must not rule out any option,\u2019 said Florida Senator Rick Scott to\nreporters.<\/p>\n
\u2018The same thing that happened to Maduro should happen to Raul\nCastro,\u2019 he added.<\/p>\n
Experts say that from a military standpoint, capturing Castro would\nbe feasible but fraught with risk and complexity, including his advanced\nage and potential resistance.<\/p>\n
\u2018In some respects it might be easier to extract him,\u2019 said Adam\nIsacson, a regional expert with the Washington Office on Latin America,\na think tank.<\/p>\n
\u2018He has symbolic value. That is to say, he is closely guarded. But\nthat would, of course, be possible,\u2019 he added.<\/p>\n
Many Cuban exiles in the U.S. hope the Havana communist government\nwill be toppled soon (Getty Images)<\/p>\n
However, removing Castro, who stepped down as president in 2018,\nmight not have a significant effect on the Cuban government as a whole,\neven though for years he has been seen as a symbolic figure of\ninfluence.<\/p>\n
\u2018I think [the arrest] would not greatly affect the power structure in\nCuba any longer. He is 94 years old,\u2019 Isacson said. \u2018The Castro family\ndynasty is influential, but it is no longer at the centre of what they\nbuilt.\u2019<\/p>\n
\u2018For domestic political reasons, it might be a blow,\u2019 he added.<\/p>\n
\u2018They would relish shaming the Castro family and jailing one of the\noriginal revolutionaries from 1959. But its strategic value is\nquestionable.\u2019<\/p>\n
The United States could push for regime change in Cuba<\/p>\n
One possibility cited by U.S. officials, including Trump, is for new\nleadership to take power in Havana.<\/p>\n
Experts note that this approach resembles the replacement of Maduro\nby Delcy Rodr\u00edguez in Venezuela. The Venezuelan government remains\nintact, but maintains direct relations with the Trump\nadministration.<\/p>\n
\u2018If Cuba asks for help, we will talk,\u2019 he wrote on Truth Social on 12\nMay.<\/p>\n
Several parties believe the U.S. will imitate what happened in\nVenezuela, namely Delcy Rodr\u00edguez taking power from Maduro (Getty\nImages)<\/p>\n
A few days after Trump wrote on Truth Social, CIA Director John\nRatcliffe met with Cuban officials, including Castro\u2019s grandson Raul\nGuillermo Rodr\u00edguez Castro, and Interior Minister L\u00e1zaro \u00c1lvarez\nCasas.<\/p>\n
\u2018We will engage with Cuba\u2026 ultimately they must make a decision.\nTheir system isn\u2019t functioning,\u2019 Foreign Minister Marco Rubio told\nreporters in Florida on Thursday (21\/05).<\/p>\n
The changes the U.S. seeks could include opening the economy,\ninviting more foreign investment, and greater involvement of Cuban exile\ngroups, as well as a commitment to ending the presence of Russian or\nChinese intelligence agencies on the island.<\/p>\n
Crucially, such changes could keep the Cuban government largely\nintact.<\/p>\n
\u2018Just as they want to avoid instability in Venezuela, they also want\nto avoid instability in Cuba,\u2019 said Michael Shifter, a Latin American\nstudies professor at Georgetown University and former head of the\nInter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank.<\/p>\n
\u2018To force regime change would be too risky,\u2019 he added.<\/p>\n
Some experts consulted by the BBC say the challenge for the Trump\nadministration is the lack of a figure inside Cuba ready to take\nover.<\/p>\n
\u2018I don\u2019t think there is a Delcy Rodr\u00edguez figure in Cuba, and power\noperates differently there than in Venezuela,\u2019 Shifter said.<\/p>\n
\u2018It\u2019s hard to discern what they are seeking, but I think they are\nlooking for some form of governing structure.\u2019<\/p>\n
Cuba could collapse<\/p>\n
The third possibility is that Cuba could implode under economic\npressure, resulting in hours-long blackouts and food shortages.<\/p>\n
\u2018There will be no escalation. I don\u2019t think it\u2019s necessary,\u2019 Trump\nsaid this week.<\/p>\n
\u2018The place is collapsing. It\u2019s a disaster, and they have lost control\nto some extent.\u2019<\/p>\n
Yet scholars say the Cuba situation is far more complex, as the\nmechanisms by which the Cuban government controls its people largely\nremain intact, even in a harsh economic period.<\/p>\n
\u2018You must distinguish between Cuba\u2019s economy and the state and\ngovernment of Cuba,\u2019 Shifter said.<\/p>\n
\u2018The Cuban economy can - and is - collapsing\u2026 but the state remains\nfunctional, particularly in security terms,\u2019 he added.<\/p>\n
Cuba\u2019s collapse could also pose challenges for the Trump\nadministration if a large number of Cuban citizens flee the country,\nespecially to the United States.<\/p>\n
Moreover, the arrival of Cuban migrants recently has faced<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/us-charges-former-cuban-leader-raul-castro-3-possible-scenarios-1779541944", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }