US Blunder in Iran Triggers Persian Hemisphere Rise, Impact Could Spread to Indonesian Industry
Escalation of conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran has raised concerns about the global economic impact, including effects on Indonesia. Several geopolitical observers and economists believe the situation requires serious government monitoring to prevent widespread repercussions for the industrial and employment sectors.
Teguh Santosa, Director of Geopolitics at GREAT Institute, assessed that the US attack on Iran on 28 February was a strategic miscalculation. According to him, the move could potentially weaken the influence of the “Land of Uncle Sam” in the Gulf region.
“The United States has lost the opportunity to re-establish its foothold in the Gulf. If previously Donald Trump spoke about the Western Hemisphere, now we are witnessing the rise of the ‘Persian Hemisphere’,” said Teguh during a discussion at the Forum Urun Rembug Serikat Buruh at TB Simatupang, South Jakarta, Tuesday (10 March) evening.
This lecturer in International Relations at UIN Syarif Hidayatullah stated that the weakening of US influence in the region represents a continuation of Washington’s geopolitical decline in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Additionally, Teguh predicted that domestic political dynamics in the US and Israel could influence the direction of the conflict. In Washington, Donald Trump is expected to face considerable pressure ahead of the mid-term elections in November 2026. Meanwhile in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu’s position is threatened by opposition figures such as Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) and the Labour Party faction, which is more open to a two-state solution ahead of elections in October 2026.
According to him, this shift in geopolitical constellation could create opportunities for peace efforts in Gaza. Reduced US dominance could increase prospects for Palestine to gain recognition as a sovereign nation and become a full United Nations member.
On the other hand, senior economist Fadhil Hasan from the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) cautioned that the duration of the conflict is difficult to predict. Therefore, he called upon various parties, including labour organisations, to continue monitoring developments in the global situation.
“We ask that it must be monitored and if necessary, provide input to the government so that the impact is not negative,” said Fadhil.
Fadhil also urged President Prabowo Subianto to be more proactive in international diplomacy to prevent the broader spread of conflict impacts from the Middle East.
General Chairman of the Confederation of All Indonesian Workers’ Unions (KSPSI), Jumhur Hidayat, expressed concern that the conflict would have a direct impact on the national industrial sector. He cited the Indonesian automotive industry, which has most of its production oriented towards exports.
Jumhur disclosed receiving a report from someone working at an automotive company in the country that 65% of national automotive production is export-oriented. Of this amount, 50% goes to the Middle East. “And currently it is at a standstill. So that means approximately 30% of the production that is usually carried out is now stopped.” According to him, if this condition persists for a long period, it could result in threats of termination for thousands of workers.
“We deliberately held a discussion by inviting senior economists from Indef and experts from GREAT Institute to truly understand what impacts will occur due to the escalation of war in the Middle East,” Jumhur concluded.