US and Israeli Conflict versus Iran: Impacts on Indonesian Tourism
Escalation of geopolitical conflict between the United States and Israel versus Iran, which intensified since late February 2026, has created significant shocks across various global economic sectors, including Indonesia. One of the sectors experiencing the most immediate and tangible impact is tourism. The tension, which triggered airspace closures in several Middle Eastern countries and disrupted international flight routes, has directly affected tourist mobility.
Indonesia, as a country whose tourism industry is heavily dependent on foreign visitor arrivals, particularly from Europe and the Middle East, faces considerable pressure. This article examines the various impacts of the conflict on Indonesian tourism, ranging from transport disruptions and declining visitor numbers to mitigation measures undertaken by the government and stakeholders.
Disruptions to the Transport Sector and Air Connectivity
The most direct and visible impact of the US-Israel versus Iran conflict is disruption to the aviation sector, which forms the lifeblood of international tourism. Airspace closures in several Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, Iraq, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, have forced airlines to cancel or postpone flight schedules. This automatically severs connectivity routes between Indonesia and Europe that have traditionally relied on major aviation hubs in the Gulf region, such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi.
These disruptions have been felt at several major Indonesian airports. At I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport in Bali, as many as 15 international flights from carriers such as Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Qatar Airways were cancelled during the period from 28 February to 2 March 2026, affecting thousands of prospective passengers. The latest data record that from 28 February to 4 March 2026, a total of 35 international flights at the same airport were cancelled. A similar situation occurred at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport in Tangerang, where 22 Middle East route flights were recorded cancelled in a single day, and accumulated from 28 February to 5 March 2026, reaching 106 cancelled flights.
Beyond complicating matters for tourists wishing to visit Indonesia, these disruptions have also trapped Indonesian tourists and Indonesian migrant workers in affected regions. Many Indonesian citizens remained stranded in Doha, Qatar, and Amman, Jordan, due to uncertainty about when flight schedules would return to normal. Consequently, ticket prices from alternative routes surged dramatically. Garuda Indonesia tickets from Saudi Arabia to Jakarta were only available in business class at fares reaching Rp21 million per seat, an extraordinary increase compared to normal pricing.
Decline in Foreign Tourist Arrivals
The chaos in the aviation sector has directly impacted the decline in the number of foreign tourists coming to Indonesia. Indonesian tourism business is projected to potentially experience declines of up to 30 percent if the conflict persists. This is particularly driven by European tourists’ reliance on Middle Eastern aviation hubs. Learning from the previous Russia-Ukraine conflict experience, national hotel occupancy fell from approximately 60 percent to 40 percent.
This impact is already becoming evident at Indonesia’s primary tourist destination, Bali. In the first four days of the conflict escalation, foreign tourist arrivals declined by 800 people per day, particularly tourists from the Middle East region. European tourists who normally transited through Dubai or Doha were forced to seek alternative routes, such as through Southeast Asian hubs in Singapore, Malaysia, or Thailand. This route adjustment inevitably adds to travel time and costs, which could ultimately reduce tourists’ interest in visiting Indonesia.
Economic Impact and Tourism Supply Chain
The decline in foreign tourists has a domino effect across the entire tourism industry supply chain. The hotel sector, restaurants, land transport, travel agencies, and micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) dependent on tourist visits will feel the impact. Beyond transport logistics, the tourism sector has become one of the most disrupted due to this conflict.
One indirect yet significant trigger is the increase in aviation operational costs due to soaring aviation turbine fuel (avtur) prices. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil distribution channel, has triggered concerns about supply and driven up global crude oil prices. This rise in avtur costs will subsequently prompt airlines to increase ticket prices, potentially further dampening international tourism demand.
Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty also affects export-import sectors related to tourism, such as handicrafts, fashion products, and regional culinary specialities that have previously been favoured by foreign tourists. The prolongation of the conflict will determine how deeply this economic impact will be felt in the domestic economy. The government continues to monitor the situation regarding impacts on trade and tourism, which depend on the conflict’s duration, whether it will be brief or prolonged.
Impact on the Religious Travel Sector (Umrah and Hajj)
The conflict has dealt a significant blow to the religious travel sector, particularly Umrah and Hajj pilgrimages. Hundreds of thousands of Indonesian pilgrims each month rely on flights that traverse or transit through the Middle Eastern region. Airspace closures in several countries have forced cancellations of flights to Saudi Arabia. Policy research institute Prasasti Center for Policy Studies has highlighted that if these restrictions persist for an extended period, the impacts will be substantial.