US and China Vie for the Future of Energy
Regardless of the outcome of the war between the United States (US) and Iran, the global energy market will not return to normal for a very long time. Many observers believe that the surge in fuel prices will provide significant impetus for renewable energy.
Behind the current power struggle in the Persian Gulf, the world’s two largest economic powers are competing to determine the future architecture of global energy and who will dominate it. Under President Donald Trump, the US is fully committed to boosting oil and gas production, while China has transformed over the past decade from the world’s largest carbon dioxide producer into the global leader in the electric energy revolution.
America wants the fossil fuel era to last as long as possible, while China is gradually implementing a strategy of global leadership through solar panels, energy storage batteries, and electric vehicles labelled “made in China”.
Oil and Gas as Levers of US Foreign Policy and Economy
“In the US, the energy dominance agenda, which heavily relies on the fossil energy market, is clearly attempting to leverage America’s fossil energy wealth for political interests,” said energy expert Andreas Goldthau, Director of the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy at the University of Erfurt, to DW. “This even extends to efforts to control other resource-rich countries like Venezuela, or to regulate their resources, production, and exports.”
“On the other hand, we see China, which is very focused on decarbonisation, clean technology sectors, and reducing oil and gas imports. This is not just a matter of climate policy. Rather, it is an issue of economic security,” Goldthau explained.
Chinese citizens, he said, have clearly realised that they depend on other countries to sustain their economic model and they are doing everything possible to change this. “China is the largest investor in renewable energy and clean technology. Now, they are the leader in the technologies we need to master the energy transition,” said Goldthau.
From smart energy grids to solar or wind power, nothing can be built anymore without products and components from China, including rare earth metals. “They have made significant progress, including in the field of electrolysers (for producing green hydrogen) and battery storage,” said Goldthau. “The list is long. They are doing this to build resilience on one side, but also, of course, to achieve a certain level of independence and sovereignty.”
According to analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and management consultants McKinsey, between 60%-70% of all electric vehicles worldwide are produced in China. As China’s economic growth slows, there is a massive oversupply that is increasingly being exported to Europe.
Success of the ‘Made in China’ Programme
China also holds full control over key energy transition technologies. The country now controls around 80% of the global photovoltaic supply chain. In some subsectors, such as silicon wafer production, its market share exceeds 95%. According to the IEA’s Global EV Outlook, in the first half of 2025, China installed more solar capacity than the total installed worldwide.
China’s share in global wind turbine production has also risen rapidly in recent years. According to figures from the Global Wind Energy Council and data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China will dominate around 72% of the global market for new wind turbines by 2025. Eight of the top ten leading manufacturers worldwide are now Chinese companies, such as Goldwind or Envision.
China’s exports of green technology have increased more than fourfold between 2020 and 2025. The energy think tank Ember calculates that in 2025, the clean energy sector will contribute more than a third of China’s total GDP growth.
US Fossil Energy Dominance vs. China’s Electrified Nation
Meanwhile, the US under Trump’s leadership is instead braking the development of renewable energy while accelerating the massive expansion of fossil fuels. During his election campaign, Trump’s call to supporters was “drill, baby, drill”. “Drill as much as possible” is also the principle of Trump’s Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, who is also the founder and former CEO of Liberty Energy, the second largest fracking company in North America.
“It’s no secret that under Trump’s leadership, the US is pursuing an ‘energy dominance’ policy,” said Henning Gloystein, an energy expert at the London office of the New York-based consultancy Eurasia Group. “This policy is being implemented openly. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has been talking about it for years. This dominance will be built by boosting domestic oil and gas production and exports. They also want to gain control over foreign assets, such as in Venezuela, for example, and possibly in Iran.”
US Fracking Revolution
According to US Energy Secretary Wright, in just 20 years, the United States has transformed from the world’s largest importer of oil and gas into the world’s largest gas exporter, as well as one of the dominant oil exporters. This has been achieved thanks to what is called the “shale revolution”: the fracking boom in the United States that has massively increased domestic natural gas and oil production.
“Currently, the United States produces more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined, and more natural gas than the combined output of Russia, Iran, and China, thus solidifying its role as an unchallenged global energy leader,” states the White House confidently on its official website.
Lower Tariffs for Buyers of US Fossil Fuels
Does this mean that for Trump, oil is essentially a geopolitical power factor that must be owned and controlled? “Of course,” said