UOB Asset Management Outlines Three Market Scenarios Amid Rising Geopolitical Risks
Singapore (ANTARA/PRNewswire) - UOB Asset Management (UOBAM) has launched its 2Q 2026 Quarterly Investment Strategy, which highlights the increasingly uncertain conditions in the global investment market. Although global economic growth and structural innovation remain fairly solid, pressures from geopolitical risks are now increasingly overshadowing market prospects.
According to the report, expectations for global growth and corporate performance remain relatively positive across major regions, driven by sustained investments in artificial intelligence (AI), energy, and infrastructure. However, recent geopolitical developments—particularly in the Middle East—have made conditions even more uncertain, including potential disruptions in energy markets, new inflationary pressures, and sharper market volatility.
UOBAM assesses that the Iran conflict is no longer one-sided and outlines three potential scenarios in the coming months.
In a scenario with a 40% probability, geopolitical tensions ease, leading to stable energy prices, reduced inflationary pressures, and a rebound in risk assets. Another scenario with the same probability (40%) forecasts prolonged disruptions that trigger high volatility and risks of economic and market downturns.
Meanwhile, in a lower-probability scenario (20%) but with greater impact, the conflict could escalate, causing risks of a global recession to surge.
Anthony Raza, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy at UOBAM, said, “Although difficult to predict, markets are likely to focus more on the impact of geopolitics on economic stability, inflation, and risk premiums rather than the political dynamics themselves. This situation encourages investors to reassess the reliability of global policies and security conditions, ultimately increasing the likelihood of structurally higher risk premiums and reinforcing a more cautious, resilient, and diversified investment portfolio approach.”
In line with these conditions, UOBAM takes a neutral position on equity assets, relative to the benchmark index, while still emphasising the importance of diversification and selectivity. On the other hand, the investment portfolio remains diversified in fixed-income instruments, with an overweight position in gold and an underweight in cash.
For a more complete analysis related to equity, bond, currency, and commodity instruments, the Q2 2026 Investment Strategy is available at: https://uobam.com.sg/qis2q26
About UOB Asset Management
UOB Asset Management Ltd (UOBAM) is a subsidiary of United Overseas Bank Limited. Established in 1986, UOBAM has approximately 40 years of experience managing collective investment schemes and discretionary funds in Singapore. UOBAM is the largest unit trust manager in Singapore based on assets under management. As of 28 February 2026, UOBAM manages 61 unit trusts in Singapore. Together with its subsidiaries, UOBAM manages client assets worth S$43.4 billion.
Headquartered in Singapore, UOBAM has a strong presence in Asia through representative offices in Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. UOBAM’s network includes UOB Islamic Asset Management Sdn Bhd in Malaysia, a joint venture established with Ping An Fund Management Company Limited, as well as strategic alliances with several partners, such as Wellington Management Singapore.
UOBAM is one of the most award-winning investment managers, with more than 380 awards. In 2025, UOBAM successfully won the title of “Best Regional Asset Management Company” from Asia Asset Management, as well as “Best Asset Management House in Asia – 20 Years” in 2023. UOBAM’s digital innovations have also received much recognition, including “Best Digital Wealth Management in Asia”[1] and “Best Robo Advisory Initiative”[2] for four consecutive years in 2024.
As a leader in sustainable investment services, UOBAM has won the title “Best application of ESG in ASEAN”[3] (2023), as well as various sustainability awards in Indonesia and Thailand. Furthermore, UOBAM’s expertise in artificial intelligence has been recognised as “Most Innovative Application of Artificial Intelligence (ASEAN)” for three consecutive years[4].
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SOURCE UOB Asset Management