United Arab Emirates Exits OPEC, Global Oil Market Faces New Risks

JAKARTA — The United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) decision to leave the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has shaken the global energy market. This step is seen as a major blow to the cohesion of the world’s largest oil cartel amid geopolitical pressures and uncertainties in energy supply. The UAE has stated it will depart from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance starting from 1 May 2026. The UAE is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC and possesses significant spare production capacity. Therefore, the country’s exit is viewed not merely as a symbolic issue but one that could potentially alter the balance of power in the global oil market. This decision arises amid long-standing tensions shadowing the UAE’s relations with OPEC, particularly regarding production quotas. Now, as the oil market faces supply disruptions due to regional conflicts and interruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Abu Dhabi has chosen an independent path. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei stated that the decision was made after a thorough review of the country’s energy strategy, both current and future. “This is a policy decision that has been taken after carefully considering current and future policies related to production levels,” al-Mazrouei told Reuters, as quoted on Tuesday (28/4/2026). When asked whether the UAE consulted with Saudi Arabia before taking this step, al-Mazrouei said the issue was not discussed with any other country. This statement adds a new dimension to the UAE’s decision, given that Saudi Arabia has long been the dominant force in OPEC. The UAE’s exit raises major questions about the future of OPEC and the effectiveness of OPEC+, the alliance formed since 2016 to manage supply jointly with non-member producers such as Russia.