Unexpected: BPS's Latest Forecast on Corn Production in 2026
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) estimates that production of dry shelled corn at 14% moisture content (JPK KA 14%) from January to May 2026 will reach 6.96 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.05 million tonnes (0.68%) compared to the same period in 2025. This decline is occurring alongside weakened production in the March-May period, influenced by a reduction in harvested area and related to previous corn planting conditions.
On a monthly basis, corn production in February 2026 is recorded at 1.77 million tonnes, down from 1.86 million tonnes in February 2025. Meanwhile, for the March-May 2026 period, BPS estimates production at only 3.80 million tonnes, or a 2.42% decrease compared to the same period the previous year.
BPS Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics Ateng Hartono explained that the production dynamics follow changes on the harvesting side.
“In line with the harvested area overview, production of dry shelled corn at 14% moisture in February 2026 is estimated to reach 1.77 million tonnes, lower than in February 2025,” said Ateng during a press conference on Wednesday (1/4/2026).
From the harvested area perspective, BPS noted a decline in the early part of the year. In February 2026, the harvested area for shelled corn reached 0.31 million hectares, lower than 0.33 million hectares in February 2025.
“The harvested area for shelled corn in February 2026 reached 0.31 million hectares. This figure is lower compared to February 2025,” he stated.
For the subsequent period, the potential harvested area for March-May 2026 is estimated at 0.68 million hectares, or a 2.59% year-on-year decline. Cumulatively, the harvested area from January to May 2026 is estimated at 1.22 million hectares, down 1.39% from the same period the previous year.
This decline in harvested area is related to corn planting conditions as reflected in observations from the Area Sample Framework (KSA). BPS assesses that the smaller harvested area indicates limited areas of crops ready for harvest during that period.
Ateng emphasised that the potential harvested area figures remain dynamic and can change according to field conditions.
“The potential figures will of course change, depending on current observation results, such as pest attacks, floods, droughts, and changes in harvest timing by farmers,” he explained.
Additionally, BPS noted that the potential harvested area includes all corn crops to be harvested, including those not for kernels.
“This potential harvested area already includes corn crops to be harvested not for kernels, for example, harvested young or for green fodder,” said Ateng.
In line with the decline in harvested area, corn production for March-May 2026 is estimated to fall to 3.80 million tonnes, which then pressures the total cumulative production in the early part of the year.
Thus, overall, corn production from January to May 2026 is estimated at 6.96 million tonnes, or down 0.68% from the same period the previous year, following the decline in harvested area and crop conditions.
BPS reaffirms that it will continue to monitor field developments, as the potential figures may still change to fixed figures in the next release.