UN warns global temperatures could break records until 2030

The UN has warned that average global temperatures are likely to reach new highs over the next five years. On Thursday (28 May), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a report stating that annual average temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are projected to be 1.3 to 1.9 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average.

The WMO report indicates a 75% chance that global temperatures will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. This threshold is the long-term warming limit agreed upon in the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, scientists believe the likelihood of global temperatures surpassing 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels remains “very small.”

The WMO also forecasts that 2024’s heat record is likely to be broken. “There is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest on record,” the report states. Arctic temperatures over the next five winters are expected to rise by 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average, while northern Europe is predicted to experience wetter winters, increasing flood risks.

Regarding El Niño in 2027, the WMO noted rising sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, suggesting the potential for El Niño conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028. Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO’s Global Annual-to-Decadal Update report, said: “El Niño predictions for late 2026 could make 2027 the next record-breaking hot year.” El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterised by warmer Pacific Ocean surface temperatures near the equator affecting global weather patterns, contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record with temperatures around 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial averages.

In Indonesia, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) stated that El Niño is expected to become active in June 2026 and last until March to May 2027. BMKG Chief Teuku Faisal Fatani said the upcoming El Niño will be moderate to strong. He added that El Niño is a periodic global climate anomaly occurring every three to seven years, hence widespread monitoring by countries.

Environment Minister Mohammad Jumhur Hidayat reported challenges in forest fire mitigation efforts and confirmed the ministry would refine its strategies to combat wildfires. According to Detik.com, rising sea temperatures are anticipated to trigger a strong El Niño between 2026 and 2027, reinforcing predictions of record-breaking heat.