UGM Professor: Indonesia's Prospects of Mediation in the Iran–US Conflict Are Limited
Professor Siti Mutiah Setyawati, a Distinguished Professor of International Relations at the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), assesses that Indonesia’s membership in the Board of Peace (BoP), which was initiated by the United States, would complicate Indonesia’s ability to mediate to halt the Iran–US–Israel conflict. As a fellow BoP member, she notes that Indonesia is already perceived as having good relations with the United States and Israel. This position could create the impression that Indonesia is aligned in the Middle East conflict.
In fact, Siti explains that perceived neutrality is the most important factor for successful peace diplomacy. When a country is seen as belonging to a particular bloc, the prospects of being accepted as a mediator become very small. “The mediator must be in a neutral position, whereas if Indonesia enters BoP, whose members include the United States and Israel, it will be difficult for other parties such as Iran to accept Indonesia as a mediator,” Siti said, as quoted from the UGM website on Saturday, 7 March 2026.
Therefore, Siti argues that the government should reconsider Indonesia’s diplomatic steps within the global political constellation. She says a country’s diplomatic capacity is heavily influenced by its position within the international power structure. Developing countries like Indonesia, she argues, need to be cautious when involving themselves in conflicts among great powers.
“In the structure of global power, Indonesia still falls within the group of developing countries, so we should realistically assess diplomatic capacity in major conflicts like the one happening in the Middle East,” she said.
Rather than insisting on offering to be mediator, Siti emphasises that the government’s attention should be directed at the safety of Indonesian citizens in the conflict area. Escalating conflicts pose risks to thousands of Indonesian nationals working and living in the Gulf region. “The most urgent thing is actually to save Indonesian nationals in that area because the number of Indonesian nationals in the Gulf is very large and their safety must be the top priority,” she said.
Moreover, the Middle East expert explains that the Iran–United States conflict has stretched on for a long time, making it difficult to resolve quickly. The relations between the two countries have deteriorated since the Iranian Revolution of 1979. In many cases, Siti notes, Iran’s relations with Western countries are often marked by deep distrust, connected to various sanctions policies and international political pressure on Iran.
“In my experience of international relations, conflicts like this often last a very long time and can continue for years depending on the dynamics of power involved.”
The escalation of the Middle East conflict peaked after the United States attacked Iran with missiles on Saturday, 26 February 2026. Iran retaliated by launching strikes against several US military bases in the Gulf region, such as Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. The war broke out after the US and Iran failed to reach a nuclear deal in Geneva, Switzerland, on 26 February 2026.
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Sugiono, said he had coordinated with the United States and Iran regarding Indonesia’s offer to mediate the escalation of the conflict. He stated directly the intention for Indonesia to become mediator in a telephone conversation with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. “I am communicating with both sides, the US and Iran,” Sugiono said at the Presidential Palace Complex in Jakarta on Tuesday evening, 3 March 2026.
However, Sugiono said the conflicting parties have not yet made a decision. The US and Iran are still monitoring developments. “We will wait and see how things unfold, because they say they will observe the situation for a few days and weeks ahead,” he added.