UGM Economist: Indonesia-United States Agreement Is Not Reciprocal
An economist from the Faculty of Economics and Business at Gadjah Mada University (UGM), Rimawan Pradiptyo, has assessed that there is no fair reciprocal benefit in the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) between Indonesia and the United States. Rimawan characterised the trade agreement signed by President Prabowo Subianto and President Donald Trump as a zero-sum game, rather than a reciprocal agreement.
A zero-sum game, derived from game theory and economics, is a situation in which gains achieved by one party are obtained at the expense of another party’s losses. “This is the pattern. This is not an agreement. This is the winner takes all. This is a zero-sum game,” Rimawan stated during a public discussion organised by the Civil Society Coalition, broadcast via YouTube Imparsial on Wednesday, 25 February 2026.
On 19 February 2026, Indonesia and the United States signed a document titled “Agreement Between the United States of America and the Republic of Indonesia on Reciprocal Trade”. Rimawan explained that the term “reciprocal” means mutual benefit. He elaborated that in economic theory there exists the concept of fairness equilibria, or agreements based on a sense of fairness. “I do not see that fairness,” Rimawan stated.
He noted that the Indonesia-United States trade agreement is asymmetrical in nature. The obligations between Indonesia and the United States differ significantly. Rimawan highlighted that within the ART document there are 211 instances of the phrase “Indonesia shall”, meaning Indonesia must implement the provisions contained in the agreement. By contrast, there are only nine equivalent formulations when referring to American obligations towards Indonesia.
According to Rimawan, American obligations use the words “may” (optional), “intends to” (intends to), or “commits to” (commits to). “But for Indonesia, its discretion is very limited. This becomes problematic,” he said.
Beyond this, Rimawan also criticised the Indonesia-United States trade agreement for being predominantly concerned with points relating to non-tariff barriers. He noted that of a total of 87 substantive articles, 83 articles address non-tariff barriers, whilst only four articles and one hybrid article regulate trade tariffs. “This is interesting and needs clarification, because when discussing the ART issue, the heaviest burden is actually discussing non-tariff matters,” Rimawan stated.
As noted, President Prabowo and President Trump signed the reciprocal trade agreement in Washington D.C., United States, on Thursday, 19 February 2026. Aspects of the Indonesia-United States agreement that have drawn particular scrutiny include halal certification and labelling through to the marketing of medical devices and pharmaceuticals.
The agreement regarding halal certification for American-origin products is detailed in Article 2.9 on Halal Requirements for Manufactured Goods and Article 2.22 on Halal Requirements for Food and Agricultural Products, within Annex III Specific Commitments, Section 2 Non-Tariff Barriers and Related Matters.
The agreement concerning the marketing of medical devices and pharmaceuticals is discussed in Article 2.5 Medical Devices & Pharmaceuticals, within Annex III Specific Commitments, Section 2 Non-Tariff Barriers and Related Matters.