UAE Suddenly Exits OPEC, Here's Why

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has officially left the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) starting 1 May. This decision is shaking up the power map of the global oil market and has the potential to weaken Saudi Arabia’s dominance.

Quoting detiFinance on Wednesday (29/4/2026), the UAE’s move is also expected to pressure oil price sentiments in the long term. The UAE has long been one of the most influential OPEC members after Saudi Arabia.

According to Rystad Energy’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis, Jorge León, the UAE plays a key role in the world’s spare production capacity. Combined, Saudi Arabia and the UAE control the majority of global spare capacity, exceeding 4 million barrels per day. This capacity is crucial for stabilising prices during crises.

“Therefore, the UAE’s exit eliminates one of the main pillars supporting OPEC’s ability to manage the market,” León said.

Reasons for UAE’s Exit

The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC starting 1 May is said to have been triggered by a series of missile and drone attacks over weeks by Iran. Attacks on shipments in the Strait of Hormuz have also hindered oil exports and threatened the UAE’s economic foundations.

However, the UAE denies this. Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei emphasised that the UAE’s exit has been arranged to minimise disruptions for fellow producers in the group.

He stated that the UAE wants greater flexibility in determining production policies. The country is targeting a production capacity of up to 5 million barrels per day by 2027.

President of Lipow Oil Associates, Andy Lipow, assessed that this decision was also triggered by the UAE’s discomfort with several other members, such as Iraq and Russia (OPEC+), who frequently violate production quotas. Meanwhile, the UAE is still required to comply with production cuts to keep prices high.

“When the conflict between the US and Iran ends and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, I expect the UAE to produce as much oil as possible, utilising every bit of spare capacity they have,” Lipow said.