UAE celebrates jubilee, but who rules next?

UAE celebrates jubilee, but who rules next?

By Michael Georgy

ABU DHABI (Reuter): A huge wooden image of Sheikh Zaid bin
Sultan al-Nahayan towers over the highway that leads into Abu
Dhabi, a vivid reminder that one leader dominates this land of
immense wealth.

Since he began turning seven impoverished and often feuding
desert sheikhdoms into a global oil power, Sheikh Zaid has been
the driving force behind the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

On Dec. 2, the Gulf Arab state celebrates 25 years of
independence from Britain and the 30th anniversary of Sheikh
Zaid's accession as ruler of Abu Dhabi.

Slogans praising Sheikh Zaid, who is also the UAE president,
are already strung from lamp posts along the city's boulevards.

But as the pomp fades and the UAE looks ahead to the next
quarter-century, the question on the minds of many Gulf-watchers
is which of Sheikh Zaid's many powerful sons is destined to take
over the reins of power in a land blessed with the world's fifth
largest oil reserves.

Sheikh Zaid, 78, returned home this month after undergoing
surgery on a vertebra in his neck in the United States. He has
since appeared in public wearing a neck brace in meetings with
visiting officials. A UAE official said he is in good health.

Diplomats and Western businessmen are struggling to understand
how the al-Nahayan family, sheikhs of Abu Dhabi for more than 250
years, will determine the next rulers.

Few doubt Crown Prince Sheikh Khalifa, eldest of Sheikh Zaid's
19 sons by five wives, will become Abu Dhabi ruler and president
of the UAE, diplomats and experts say.

The rulers of the seven emirates must make the decision, but
"it is taken for granted that he will be Abu Dhabi ruler as well
as president," said an expert on the UAE.

Described by a Western diplomat as a man who lacks charisma
but "knows the ropes" and "signs the cheques", Sheikh Khalifa has
been running Abu Dhabi's daily affairs for several years.

He already knows a great deal about power. He is chairman of
some of the country's most influential institutions, including
the Supreme Petroleum Council (SPC) which makes the country's
major oil decisions and of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
which has an estimated $150 billion invested abroad.

The 49-year-old sheikh, as head of the Khalifa Committee that
extends millions of dollars in soft loans to spread oil revenues
and also Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, is able to
muster "massive patronage", said the diplomat.

Sheikh Khalifa has one potential drawback -- he has no full
brothers -- Western diplomats say. Having full brothers can give
members of ruling families greater clout in pushing major policy
decisions through the powerful network of sheikhs.

The most sensitive task facing the al-Nahayan family is
determining what diplomats call the "second succession" -- the
next Abu Dhabi crown prince.

"This is the issue that could open up a Pandora's box," said a
Western diplomat who has spent many years in Abu Dhabi.
"There are several scenarios," he added.

The leading candidates are armed forces chief of staff Sheikh
Mohammed and Deputy Prime Minister Sheikh Sultan, both sons of
Sheikh Zaid and members of the SPC.

According to tradition the oldest of the two, 41-year-old
Sheikh Sultan, should be chosen as crown prince, but diplomats
and experts say it is hard to predict.

"This is a very difficult question," said the expert. "The
decision may have already been made. These decisions are made
behind closed doors."

Sheikh Mohammed, 36, is described by Western businessmen and
diplomats as a shrewd visionary who recognizes the challenges
facing the UAE, a low-key player in the volatile Gulf.

As the UAE's leading arms procurement officer, he has
traveled extensively to Western capitals and is the prime
interlocuter of foreign governments.

"He has Sheikh Zaid's charisma and flair. He's a politician,"
a Western diplomat said on Sheikh Mohammed. "He does not always
show up at SPC meetings but when he does he can carry the day."
Sheikh Sultan's style differs sharply. He has spent more time
cultivating a constituency among the tribes.

Sheikh Sultan, an Investment Authority board member, has vast
experience in government. He often leads cabinet meetings.

Diplomats expect a smooth transition and they say the future
players in the UAE may have different styles of management but
are unlikely to depart from Sheikh Zaid's policies.

Abu Dhabi's last experience of succession was in 1966 when
Sheikh Zaid took over from his deposed brother Shakhbout to
become Abu Dhabi ruler.

Observers doubt that the country's new rulers will possess the
kind of energy and vision that has enabled Sheikh Zaid to turn a
string of fishing villages into a land of eight-lane highways,
skyscrapers and luxury cars.

In 1966, a Western oil company offered Sheikh Shakhbout a
cheque as part of an oil deal. He refused it, saying the amount
was too small.

"Sheikh Zaid took the cheque and told people to build a road
immediately,"' said the expert on the UAE. "He is a man of
vision. This (replacing him) is the challenge.