UAE celebrates jubilee, but who rules next?<\/p>\n
By Michael Georgy<\/p>\n
ABU DHABI (Reuter): A huge wooden image of Sheikh Zaid bin
\nSultan al-Nahayan towers over the highway that leads into Abu
\nDhabi, a vivid reminder that one leader dominates this land of
\nimmense wealth.<\/p>\n
Since he began turning seven impoverished and often feuding
\ndesert sheikhdoms into a global oil power, Sheikh Zaid has been
\nthe driving force behind the United Arab Emirates (UAE).<\/p>\n
On Dec. 2, the Gulf Arab state celebrates 25 years of
\nindependence from Britain and the 30th anniversary of Sheikh
\nZaid's accession as ruler of Abu Dhabi.<\/p>\n
Slogans praising Sheikh Zaid, who is also the UAE president,
\nare already strung from lamp posts along the city's boulevards.<\/p>\n
But as the pomp fades and the UAE looks ahead to the next
\nquarter-century, the question on the minds of many Gulf-watchers
\nis which of Sheikh Zaid's many powerful sons is destined to take
\nover the reins of power in a land blessed with the world's fifth
\nlargest oil reserves.<\/p>\n
Sheikh Zaid, 78, returned home this month after undergoing
\nsurgery on a vertebra in his neck in the United States. He has
\nsince appeared in public wearing a neck brace in meetings with
\nvisiting officials. A UAE official said he is in good health.<\/p>\n
Diplomats and Western businessmen are struggling to understand
\nhow the al-Nahayan family, sheikhs of Abu Dhabi for more than 250
\nyears, will determine the next rulers.<\/p>\n
Few doubt Crown Prince Sheikh Khalifa, eldest of Sheikh Zaid's
\n19 sons by five wives, will become Abu Dhabi ruler and president
\nof the UAE, diplomats and experts say.<\/p>\n
The rulers of the seven emirates must make the decision, but
\n\"it is taken for granted that he will be Abu Dhabi ruler as well
\nas president,\" said an expert on the UAE.<\/p>\n
Described by a Western diplomat as a man who lacks charisma
\nbut \"knows the ropes\" and \"signs the cheques\", Sheikh Khalifa has
\nbeen running Abu Dhabi's daily affairs for several years.<\/p>\n
He already knows a great deal about power. He is chairman of
\nsome of the country's most influential institutions, including
\nthe Supreme Petroleum Council (SPC) which makes the country's
\nmajor oil decisions and of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
\nwhich has an estimated $150 billion invested abroad.<\/p>\n
The 49-year-old sheikh, as head of the Khalifa Committee that
\nextends millions of dollars in soft loans to spread oil revenues
\nand also Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, is able to
\nmuster \"massive patronage\", said the diplomat.<\/p>\n
Sheikh Khalifa has one potential drawback -- he has no full
\nbrothers -- Western diplomats say. Having full brothers can give
\nmembers of ruling families greater clout in pushing major policy
\ndecisions through the powerful network of sheikhs.<\/p>\n
The most sensitive task facing the al-Nahayan family is
\ndetermining what diplomats call the \"second succession\" -- the
\nnext Abu Dhabi crown prince.<\/p>\n
\"This is the issue that could open up a Pandora's box,\" said a
\nWestern diplomat who has spent many years in Abu Dhabi.
\n\"There are several scenarios,\" he added.<\/p>\n
The leading candidates are armed forces chief of staff Sheikh
\nMohammed and Deputy Prime Minister Sheikh Sultan, both sons of
\nSheikh Zaid and members of the SPC.<\/p>\n
According to tradition the oldest of the two, 41-year-old
\nSheikh Sultan, should be chosen as crown prince, but diplomats
\nand experts say it is hard to predict.<\/p>\n
\"This is a very difficult question,\" said the expert. \"The
\ndecision may have already been made. These decisions are made
\nbehind closed doors.\"<\/p>\n
Sheikh Mohammed, 36, is described by Western businessmen and
\ndiplomats as a shrewd visionary who recognizes the challenges
\nfacing the UAE, a low-key player in the volatile Gulf.<\/p>\n
As the UAE's leading arms procurement officer, he has
\ntraveled extensively to Western capitals and is the prime
\ninterlocuter of foreign governments.<\/p>\n
\"He has Sheikh Zaid's charisma and flair. He's a politician,\"
\na Western diplomat said on Sheikh Mohammed. \"He does not always
\nshow up at SPC meetings but when he does he can carry the day.\"
\nSheikh Sultan's style differs sharply. He has spent more time
\ncultivating a constituency among the tribes.<\/p>\n
Sheikh Sultan, an Investment Authority board member, has vast
\nexperience in government. He often leads cabinet meetings.<\/p>\n
Diplomats expect a smooth transition and they say the future
\nplayers in the UAE may have different styles of management but
\nare unlikely to depart from Sheikh Zaid's policies.<\/p>\n
Abu Dhabi's last experience of succession was in 1966 when
\nSheikh Zaid took over from his deposed brother Shakhbout to
\nbecome Abu Dhabi ruler.<\/p>\n
Observers doubt that the country's new rulers will possess the
\nkind of energy and vision that has enabled Sheikh Zaid to turn a
\nstring of fishing villages into a land of eight-lane highways,
\nskyscrapers and luxury cars.<\/p>\n
In 1966, a Western oil company offered Sheikh Shakhbout a
\ncheque as part of an oil deal. He refused it, saying the amount
\nwas too small.<\/p>\n
\"Sheikh Zaid took the cheque and told people to build a road
\nimmediately,\"' said the expert on the UAE. \"He is a man of
\nvision. This (replacing him) is the challenge.<\/p>",
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