Two Scenarios for the 2026 Hajj Amid Middle East Conflict, Including Cancellation Option

Jakarta – The implementation of the 2026 hajj pilgrimage, or 1447 Hijri, faces potential disruption from Middle East conflict following attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran.

This potential impact has drawn the attention of Commission VIII of the House of Representatives, which held a working meeting with Minister of Hajj and Umrah Mochammad Irfan Yusuf, known as Gus Irfan, on Wednesday, 11 March 2026.

In the meeting, Gus Irfan outlined two scenarios should the 2026 hajj be affected by Middle East conflict.

The first scenario involves proceeding with the departure of Indonesian hajj pilgrims to Saudi Arabia despite high-associated risks. Whilst acknowledging these risks, Gus Irfan assured that the Ministry of Hajj and Umrah prioritises the safety and security of Indonesian hajj pilgrims above all else.

“The fundamental principle in developing these scenarios is to safeguard the safety and security of hajj pilgrims as the highest priority,” Gus Irfan stated during the meeting.

One measure involves using a southern route via the Indian Ocean and entering through East African airspace. However, this alternative route would impact the budget, as it entails longer flight distances and duration. Additionally, some aircraft lack the range to make the journey and would require intermediate stops in other countries.

“As I mentioned earlier, this approach would potentially increase flight costs due to the extended distance and flight time resulting from the flight route diversion,” Gus Irfan said.

This scenario could be selected if departure to Saudi Arabia poses a threat to Indonesian hajj pilgrims’ safety, even if Saudi Arabia remains open to receiving them.

The second scenario involves Saudi Arabia potentially remaining open, but Indonesia unilaterally cancelling pilgrim departures due to excessive security risks for Indonesian citizens.

“Secondly, there is the scenario where Saudi Arabia may remain open, but Indonesia cancels pilgrim departures given the circumstances. Because the security risk is deemed too great for the safety of Indonesian hajj pilgrims,” Gus Irfan explained.

Advance payments already made by pilgrims—covering accommodation, meals, transport, and pilgrim guides—would not be forfeited.

“Any cancelled payments would not be lost but could be used for the 2027 hajj pilgrimage without penalty. And of course, various scenarios exist, including the possibility of outright rejection as well. So we are constantly preparing contingencies,” Gus Irfan stated.