Turkish, Russian, and Western Analysts in Agreement: US-Iran War Enters Most Deadly Phase
REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA – When Donald Trump posted his latest threat on Truth Social on Saturday night, 22 March 2026, warning Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face attacks on its power plants, the world was once again presented with a familiar spectacle: bold assurances that do not fully reflect the reality on the ground.
Three weeks after the joint US-Israeli military operation against Iran officially began, this conflict has entered the most dangerous phase, not because of increasing intensity, but because of its increasingly blurred direction.
Three voices from three different perspectives—a Turkish columnist, a Russian analyst, and a BBC journalist—offer complementary yet tense readings of the map. Read together, they form a more complete picture of where this war truly stands.
Thick Fog Over the Strait of Hormuz
Anthony Zucker from the BBC formulated it precisely: the “fog of war” this time not only obscures military calculations but also poisons the perceptions of politicians and the public. Trump calls the war “almost over,” yet Marine forces continue to move into the region.
Bombings are claimed to be easing, yet attacks on Iranian targets, including the joint US-UK base at Diego Garcia, continue unabated.
This contradiction is not mere communication inconsistency. It reflects a real strategic dilemma: the US has started a war without a clear finish line.
The objectives initially outlined by Trump—destroying Iran’s military, crippling its defence infrastructure, and eliminating its nuclear programme—are now shifting gradually. What stands out is what is no longer mentioned: no calls for regime change, no more phrases like “unconditional surrender.”
In his latest update of objectives, Trump does not even include the opening of the Strait of Hormuz as an official US target, an implicit admission that this goal is far more difficult to achieve than he ever claimed.
The Illusion of a “Quick and Clean” Operation
This is where the analysis from Moscow becomes militarily relevant. The Ria Novosti columnist dissects with cold precision a premise that appears to be circulating among Pentagon planners: that the US could conduct a “limited” ground operation in Iran, seize Kharg Island or Qeshm, cut off oil exports, and force Tehran to negotiate without being drawn into a long war.