Tsunamis bring mixed fortunes to Asian leaders

Tsunamis bring mixed fortunes to Asian leaders

Amal Jayasinghe, Agence France-Presse/Male

The tsunami waves that devastated much of the Indian Ocean coastline a month ago have brought a boost to some of the region's leaders, while for others the daunting relief effort ahead is proving a test of their political mettle.

For the most part in Sri Lanka, the Maldives, India and Thailand, the tragedy is seen to have benefited national leaders, whose response to the disaster was generally seen as positive.

However, in Indonesia, and to a lesser degree in Sri Lanka, enthusiasm over the tsunami response is being balanced against the government's handling of long-running civil conflicts.

In the Maldives, where President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom was seeking in weekend polls a mandate to continue his 27-year rule, voters were expected to reward the government for its speedy relief response in the archipelago nation.

Opposition figures behind a campaign for democratic reform to end the rule of Asia's longest-serving ruler earlier conceded their chances of victory had been dented by the tsunamis.

"It is the government that controls aid. So people want to be good with the ruler," an Asian diplomat in the Maldives said.

The election, postponed twice, was the first since a pro- democracy uprising in the mainly-Sunni Muslim country of 300,000 forced Gayoom to impose marshal law.

Pro-opposition support in a nation where political parties are banned was high before the tsunami battered the paradise resort nation's 1,192 islands.

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's handling of the disaster has boosted his popularity before elections next month, according to a poll.

Some 54.1 percent said they are more satisfied with Thaksin in a poll by private university ABAC, compared to 48.1 percent in a survey September.

"Thailand is one of those countries that, on the world stage, has impressed with its response to the tsunami -- I have not heard of any stories where survivors have complained about post- tsunami efforts," said Michael DeGolyer, political scientist at Hong Kong's Baptist University.

"Thaksin is reaping the benefits of that positive feeling."

However in the worst-hit nations, Sri Lanka and Indonesia, public perceptions of their governments' handling of the crisis are clouded by ongoing civil wars and a raft of domestic political issues.

The sudden arrival of funds and supplies from donor countries has increased tension between the Sri Lanka government and Tamil separatists in the north, with the rebels claiming most of the relief is going to the Sinhalese-dominated south.

It also claimed Colombo is using aid money to buy arms. The government has vehemently rejected both allegations.

But Sri Lanka, which lost 31,000 people, has received a huge boost from foreign aid which has helped avert an economic catastrophe for President Chandrika Kumaratunga, despite the waves' destruction.

With foreign reserves falling by 16 percent, inflation galloping at 15.2 percent and a record trade deficit of US$1.7 billion, the country had been heading for big financial problems.

But the avalanche of aid has helped Colombo overcome immediate financial problems. The Sri Lankan rupee, which had fallen by nearly 7.5 percent, rallied immediately after the tragedy to emerge as one of the world's best performing currencies.

"In the short term, the tsunami has been good for the government," said former Tamil legislator Dharmalingam Sidhathan. "But, you can't expect the good fortunes last for too long. People forget. And that can happen in six months."

In Indonesia's Aceh province, which took the brunt of the waves' force losing almost 174,000 lives as a result, there appears to have been no let-up in a 30-year conflict between the government and rebels struggling for a separate homeland.

The new administration of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, elected in September, won praise for allowing a huge international relief effort to mobilize in the stricken isolated region on the tip of Sumatra island.

However, his continued prosecution of the conflict with Free Aceh Movement fighters has drawn criticism.

Sensing that hostilities were detrimental to the president's position, Coordinating Minister for Social Welfare Alwi Shihab -- who is overseeing relief operations in Aceh -- sought to present a less combative side over the weekend.

"The military is now in a defensive mood because the humanitarian mission is more important than anything else," he said.

There is no ambiguity in opinions toward India's go-it-alone response to the aid call: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is seen as benefiting hugely.

New Delhi stamped its authority on relief efforts in southern regions hit by the waves, insisting foreign involvement be kept to a minimum.

India, which lost 10,749 people with 5,640 still missing, has asked the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank for help in reconstructing tsunami-hit areas but turned down offers of aid from other countries.

Compassion fatigue is rife in a nation that annually faces multiple natural disasters, but the media has responded positively to the tsunami effort.

It has also praised visits to stricken areas by politicians, including one by Singh, and the pledge of $600 million to the region-wide relief effort.

"The crisis has played into India's perception of itself as a nation no longer dependent on handouts, but able to play a commanding role," said DeGolyer.