Trump's Arrogance, Khamenei's Assassination, and Middle Eastern Dynamics
Two days after a negotiating delegation agreement between Iran and the United States was scheduled to resume in Vienna on 2 March, the US and Israel launched extensive bombing campaigns across multiple Iranian cities, including strikes on primary schools that killed over 100 students in the city of Ilam. This occurred despite the third round of negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, mediated by Oman, reportedly achieving substantial progress.
Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi, after meeting US Vice President JD Vance on 27 February, stated he believed all issues in the Iran-US deal could be resolved peacefully and comprehensively.
Accusations that Iran is building nuclear weapons, consistent with Israel’s narrative, contradict statements from the US intelligence community and the UN’s nuclear watchdog (IAEA) that such claims lack evidentiary basis. The Trump administration and its allies appear to use these allegations as pretexts to justify military action against Iran. A swift war resulting in regime change is needed by Trump to strengthen his image as a strong and reliable leader, leveraging this for regime change agendas elsewhere. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been targeted.
IRAN’S RESISTANCE
The attacks were launched whilst Iran’s economy was weakening and social tensions were high following deaths of thousands of demonstrators protesting the regime. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu orchestrated protests and encouraged demonstrators to seize state institutions. However, regime change efforts failed again.
During Geneva negotiations, Iran was willing to refrain from stockpiling enriched nuclear fissile material. It even agreed to open its energy sector to US oil companies and purchase American commercial aircraft in exchange for sanctions relief against Iran.
However, Trump, at Netanyahu’s urging, preferred regime change through military force, overlooking that other major powers would obstruct it. On 19 February, Iran, Russia, and China conducted a military exercise in the Gulf of Oman—a message to Trump that Moscow and Beijing cannot accept Trump-Netanyahu war objectives. Unsurprisingly, China and Russia jointly supplied weapons to Iran, to be paid for with Iranian oil.
Beijing and Moscow have interests in ensuring the survival of the Iranian regime and defeating Trump politically. China is the largest importer of Iranian oil. Moreover, Iran is the only country in the region that serves as China’s natural ally. Just as the US dominates Latin America, Russia views the Iranian regime as a buffer zone for its sphere of influence in Central Asia.
KHAMENEI’S ASSASSINATION
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death was arrogantly celebrated by Trump and Netanyahu with derogatory narratives demeaning this central figure in the Shia community. China and Russia protested strongly, whilst the EU and many other nations expressed regret. Indeed, the Israeli-US action was reckless. This incident demonstrates their arrogance towards Shia doctrine, Khamenei’s position, and Iran’s power structure.
Until the 18th century, mainstream Shia communities embraced the Akhbari school, which emphasised passive waiting for the return of Imam Mahdi, who has been in occultation since the 10th century. However, from the late 18th century onwards, the Usuli school gained influence. Usuli adherents believed the Shia community must play an active role in preparing for Imam Mahdi’s return.
This activism manifested politically, engaging with secular regimes destroying Islam. The Usuli movement successfully seized power in the 1979 revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Ali Khamenei belonged to this school. Khomeini was a mentor to many revolutionary figures from his youth, including Khamenei, who was imprisoned and tortured by the Shah’s intelligence agency, Savak.
As a consequence of Usuli doctrine, the Iranian revolution established a theodemocracy—a blend of modern democratic systems and Shia theology. This embodied Khomeini’s vision of placing the Velayat-e Faqih (guardianship of the jurist) at the apex of the Islamic Republic’s structure. This institution holds final decision-making authority over all state policies. Velayat-e Faqih represents Imam Mahdi, successor to the Prophet Muhammad’s mission.
Before assuming Velayat-e Faqih following Khomeini’s death in 1989, Khamenei served as Iran’s president. His policies alarmed Israel, the US, and Gulf Arab states.
First, he built a resistance axis comprising proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen, and an alliance with Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, challenging US and Israeli hegemony in the region.
Second, he developed nuclear programmes for civilian purposes and missile programmes whilst Iran faced Western arms embargoes as deterrence against external threats. However, these missile programmes threatened Israel’s military supremacy. Trump’s demands that Iran halt its nuclear programme entirely, limit missile programmes, and dismantle its resistance axis were rejected by Khamenei. Yet his assassination changes nothing. Khamenei will be succeeded by an interim council until a definitive leader is elected by the Assembly of Experts, comprising 88 senior clerics.
MIDDLE EASTERN DYNAMICS
Trump and Netanyahu’s hopes for regime change in Iran are entirely fanciful. Iranians are highly sensitive to foreign intervention in their domestic affairs. Conversely, Iran’s determination to resist arrogant powers has hardened.
Iran directly retaliated by attacking Israel, US warships, American military bases in Iraq and Jordan, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—comprising Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. All strikes reached their targets. Now the war cannot be controlled by the US and Israel. Only Iran can end the war, and Iran will demand major concessions for doing so. Thus, the war continues.