Trump's 15 Per Cent Tariff Emerges as IHSG Threat, Market Correction Risk of up to 7 Per Cent Looms

Jakarta – US President Donald Trump’s plan to raise import tariffs to 15 per cent has sparked fresh concerns in global financial markets. For Indonesia, the policy could become a negative sentiment that overshadows movements in the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG), particularly if it triggers a wave of risk-off sentiment and foreign fund outflows.

The US government, through the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), announced that import tariffs previously set at 10 per cent could be increased to 15 per cent or even higher. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated the policy would be tailored to each country’s trade profile, though specific trading partners affected remain undisclosed. The move is viewed as a continuation of the protectionist approach synonymous with Trump.

“If the 15 per cent import tariff policy is truly implemented by Donald Trump and triggers global risk-off sentiment, then pressure on the IHSG could be quite significant, especially in the short term,” said Hendra when contacted by Kompas.com on Friday (27 February 2026).

Financial markets are fundamentally sensitive to trade war concerns because their impact directly extends to international commerce, economic growth prospects, and corporate profit estimates. “In a risk-off scenario, global investors tend to exit emerging markets such as Indonesia and return to safe-haven assets like US dollars and US Treasuries,” he explained.

In such situations, liquidity becomes the primary determinant of index direction. Hendra noted that historically, large-scale foreign fund outflows can trigger index corrections in the range of 3-7 per cent over relatively short periods, depending on the magnitude of capital outflow and domestic policy responses.

“So global liquidity factors and foreign investor positioning become key. However, if the trade war is prolonged and slows global economic growth, then its impact will flow into corporate profits, particularly for export-based and commodity sectors,” he said.

If selling pressure increases and the IHSG cannot maintain the psychological level of 8,200, the index could continue weakening to test the next technical support area around 8,135. This level becomes crucial to preserve the medium-term trend structure and prevent it from shifting into a deeper correction phase.

“If the IHSG fails to hold the psychological level of 8,200, then it is very likely the index will retest the classic support at 8,135 as the next technical level,” Hendra added.

Large-cap stocks that dominate the index and possess high liquidity often become the source of funds when global investors rebalance their portfolios. “In the initial phase, clearly due to foreign outflows, the IHSG is driven by large caps. If foreigners net sell heavily, the index drops quickly. Fundamentals are usually affected later, especially if trade war persists and constrains growth,” said Reydi to Kompas.com.