Trump Trapped! All 4 Iran War Options Deadlocked: Retreat or Destruction?

The United States’ war with Iran has now entered an increasingly complex phase.

On one hand, US President Donald Trump faces pressure to swiftly end the conflict that has triggered economic turmoil, particularly through surging energy prices and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. On the other hand, the available options are equally burdensome, with none truly promising a quick end to the war.

Donald Trump’s stance on the Iran war has shifted rapidly. Like the weather in Florida, one of the US states, the direction of his policy can change in mere minutes.

On Friday, Trump stated that the American war might soon “subside”. He assessed that the US military objectives had largely been achieved. Trump also appeared unperturbed by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, claiming that America does not use that sea route.

However, that tone lasted only until Saturday. After that, Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If not, he warned that “America will attack and destroy various power plants, starting with the largest first.” This statement indicates that the discourse of an imminent subsidence of the war can change very quickly.

Citing The Economist, Trump’s supporters view this change in statement as part of a strategy.

According to them, Trump is deliberately keeping all his options open while keeping Iran on high alert. However, to many others, it appears that America entered this war with a weak strategy, beginning with the failure to anticipate that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz.

Now, as the war enters its fourth week, Trump essentially has only four choices. He can negotiate, retreat, continue the war, or escalate it. The problem is that none of these options is truly good.

Trump Has Four Choices, But All Are Risky

The first option is to negotiate. There are still diplomats who believe the US and Iran can reach a ceasefire. However, this appears to be the least likely option. Obstacles have emerged even in the initial stage, namely bringing the two parties together.

Iran has been attacked twice while negotiating with the US, so it is understandable that they are now hesitant to return to the negotiating table. At the same time, Iran’s leadership is in disarray. The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not been seen since taking office on 9 March 2026. In such a situation, America may also doubt whether there is truly anyone from Iran who can speak on behalf of the regime.

Another issue arises regarding the mediator. Oman previously acted as an intermediary in two rounds of negotiations, but during this war, Oman has angered its Gulf neighbours by being seen as too sympathetic to Iran. Therefore, they are likely to request a different mediator. Qatar is mentioned as the most probable candidate.

Even if negotiations begin, the outcome may not be sufficient. A narrow agreement that only exchanges sanctions relief for limits on Iran’s nuclear programme is deemed inadequate.

The US is likely to come with very substantial demands. Washington not only wants Iran to limit its nuclear programme but also to strictly restrict its missile programme and halt support for Arab militias.

On the other side, Iran has its own demands. Tehran wants compensation for the war and the closure of US military bases in the region. With each side’s positions equally rigid, the chances of compromise appear very slim.

If the war cannot be ended through an agreement, Trump has a second option: to end it outright. Some of his advisers are pushing for him to declare victory. Trump could claim that Iran’s military capabilities have been destroyed, its navy sunk, and its missile factories ruined.

This could be the option most suited to Trump’s style, namely selling a war with unclear results as a great victory. He himself did something similar last June, when he claimed that Iran’s nuclear programme had been “totally destroyed” by US strikes.

Yet eight months later, Trump again referred to the same nuclear programme as a threat.

However, this choice is not easy either. Trump may worry that this time, voters will be harder to convince. Petrol prices in America have risen 34% compared to a month ago.

Nevertheless, the majority of the Republican Party’s voter base still supports this war. If the war ends now, the oil price shock still has seven months to subside before the midterm elections in November.

The problem is that the war could stop without truly resolving the core issues. Iran would still possess around 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity. Iran could also emerge from this war with a renewed determination to turn that uranium into a nuclear bomb. Moreover, Iran would retain strong control over the Strait of Hormuz.

For nearly half a century, ensuring the smooth flow of oil from the Persian Gulf has been the core of US policy in the Middle East.

If the war is halted now, it means the Land of Uncle Sam is abandoning that principle.

Gulf countries could become angry and simultaneously fearful of ongoing pressure. Indeed, some Iranian officials have already discussed the possibility of charging fees to ships passing through the strait. Israel would also be unhappy with such an outcome.

The third option is to continue the war. The US and Israel could carry on with airstrikes for several more weeks. Many Israeli officials prefer this choice. Their military chief of staff said the war campaign would continue throughout the Passover holiday, which ends on 9 April.