Trump Talks Peace, Gulf States: Could This Be Another Deception?

When US President Donald Trump claimed there were “strong talks” to end the war with Iran, differing responses came from the Gulf region. Qatar has openly distanced itself from the claim, marking a striking shift from its traditional role as a regional conflict mediator.

Qatar’s government spokesperson Majed al-Ansari stated during a briefing on Tuesday evening (24/3/2026) that his country was not involved in any mediation efforts. This, even “if such talks actually exist.”

Citing analysis from The Guardian, the statement indicates a shift from Qatar’s historical position, which has long served as a mediator in conflicts, from negotiations between Israel and Hamas, talks between the US and the Taliban, to peace efforts in Lebanon and Sudan. High-level diplomacy has long been the foundation of the small Gulf state’s international influence.

However, in the past three weeks, Qatar and other Gulf countries have instead been at the forefront of the conflict after their mediation efforts to prevent war were rejected by the US.

During negotiations led by Oman regarding Iran’s nuclear programme, Washington launched two attacks on Iran. Discussions in June last year stalled when the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities.

Revived efforts in February also failed after Trump began bombing Tehran alongside Israel before the final round of meetings.

Since the war began, Gulf states have had to pour billions of dollars into countering daily Iranian missile and drone attacks, impacting their economies and sovereignty. Analysts assess that their reluctance to support ceasefire talks reflects the ongoing burden of the conflict and suspicion towards Washington’s intentions.

“They have been burned by previous experiences,” said Bilal Saab, a senior official at the Trends US advisory group and former Pentagon official during Trump’s first administration.

“They previously thought playing a useful mediation role, until they realised it was all in vain. Not to mention they have been directly involved in the war and are still being attacked by Iran. So there is a lot of frustration and disappointment affecting their willingness, and perhaps even ability, to mediate anything,” he added.

The lack of clarity on who Washington is talking to in Iran also deepens doubts. The situation has grown more complex following the assassination of several senior Iranian officials and the new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei not yet appearing in public.

On Wednesday evening, the Iranian government directly rejected Trump’s 15-point plan to end the war, conveyed through Pakistani generals. Tehran called the proposal “utterly unreasonable” and submitted a different counter-proposal.

Regional concerns also arise that negotiations could be a cover for military escalation or further assassinations of Iranian leaders.

While Trump claims diplomatic progress, thousands of US troops are being deployed to the Middle East, fuelling Gulf states’ fears of being used as pawns in US and Israeli geopolitical games.

Saab said there remains a strong possibility that this is merely a ruse to prepare for another military operation or that the US wants to hold negotiations under the threat of a ground invasion.

Iranian diplomatic sources also expressed similar concerns. One source stated there is “a high level of scepticism” towards peace talks that might be held in Islamabad.

“As we’ve seen, in previous negotiations with the US, they used them to attack and kill our leaders. Distrust is very high,” he said.

Professor at Kuwait University and Chatham House researcher Bader al-Saif said it is difficult for Gulf states to ignore the fact that “every time the word negotiation is used by the Trump administration, we unfortunately end up in a framework of war.”

“Trump has a long and unclear notion of negotiation. It’s still very fluctuating right now. I think the Gulf states will enter negotiations when they feel there is something real they can offer,” he added.

However, Al-Saif assesses that the Gulf states’ reluctance to get involved is balanced by the awareness that their future is at stake. Ending the war while the current Iranian regime remains in power is seen as an existential threat to the region’s economic ambitions.

Additionally, there is no clear solution to end Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for Gulf oil and gas exports to the world. The US-led protracted conflict also risks draining the regional economy and endangering energy and water infrastructure.

Another threat is the possibility of Iran activating sleeper cells and loyal armed groups in countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait, which could trigger internal proxy conflicts.

Al-Saif emphasised the importance of Gulf Cooperation Council countries initiating their own negotiations with Iran.

“They should not just rely on the US to conduct negotiations. They must go and make a deal with Iran themselves. This is not our war, and if we can protect ourselves from further impacts, we must do so for our national interests,” he said.

He views Pakistan as a potential relatively advantageous location for talks, although some doubt whether Islamabad has the economic influence as great as that of Qatar and the UAE, which hold billions in Iranian funds.

Senior researcher at the Middle East Institute Alex Vatanka said there is no guarantee that Trump will prioritise Gulf interests in negotiations with Iran.

“Gulf states could easily be thrown under the bus again by Trump; he doesn’t care much about them except as a source of personal commercial opportunities,” he said.

Nevertheless, Vatanka predicts that the Gulf states will ultimately