Trump Reveals Iran War Could Last Up To Four Weeks, Oil Prices Climbing?
US President Donald Trump stated that American military operations against Iran could last approximately four weeks or less. Trump acknowledged that such a conflict would result in casualties among US military personnel.
“The process always takes four weeks. We estimate it will take around four weeks. The process is always about four weeks, so no matter how powerful this country is, it will take four weeks or less,” Trump said in an interview with the Daily Mail newspaper.
Iran wanted to enter negotiations after the US operation, Trump said, adding that Tehran “should have spoken last week, not this week.”
Last Saturday, the US and Israel carried out a series of strikes against targets within Iran, including Tehran, with reports of damage and civilian casualties. Iran responded with missile attacks on Israeli territory and US military facilities in the Middle East. Iran also imposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital point for global oil distribution. Additionally, Iran attacked several oil production facilities in the Gulf region.
How does this affect global oil prices?
According to Al Jazeera, oil prices surged sharply and stocks weakened following American and Israeli strikes against Iran and retaliatory attacks on Israeli and US military installations in the Middle East, disrupting global energy supply chains.
West Texas Intermediate, a light and sweet crude oil produced in the US, traded at $72.79 per barrel at the start of Monday trading, up 8.6 per cent from around $67 on Friday, according to CME Group data.
Brent crude oil, which serves as the international standard, traded at $79.41 per barrel at the start of Monday trading, up 9 per cent from $72.87 on Friday, marking a seven-month high, according to FactSet.
Traders estimate that oil supplies from Iran and other parts of the Middle East will slow or even stop after US President Donald Trump indicated that strikes would continue until US objectives are achieved.
Yayan Satyakti, an energy expert from Padjadjaran University (Unpad), predicted that global oil prices could rise to $100 per barrel from around $72 per barrel under a scenario of Strait of Hormuz closure.
“If it is closed now, in a day or two it could directly reach $90–$100 per barrel,” Yayan said in Jakarta on Monday, 2 March 2026.
The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, located between Oman and Iran, and serves as the main route for global energy trade.
Approximately one-fifth of the world’s total oil exports flow through this strait, including most oil from Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq before being shipped to international markets.
Therefore, he stated that the Strait of Hormuz is a crucial point in the conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel.
“If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices will rise by up to 50 per cent,” he said.
Therefore, Yayan pointed out that a surge in fuel oil prices is inevitable for Indonesia, which imports oil from the Middle East. Even without the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, he continued, the current conflict in the Middle East could increase oil prices in the range of 10–25 per cent.
Considering the surge in oil prices that exceeds the macro assumptions in the 2026 State Budget (APBN), which is $70 per barrel, he cautioned the government about the importance of anticipating budget overruns.
“There must be further efficiency, but is the government willing?” he said.