Trump Rages! Government to Announce Important Policy, Involving Fuel?

Indonesia’s financial markets are expected to reverse the trend in today’s trading session on Tuesday (31/3/2026). For more details on today’s sentiment projections, see page 3 of this article.

The IHSG closed slightly weaker by 0.05% at 7,093.81 in yesterday’s trading on Monday. However, this close indicates an improvement, as in the morning session, the IHSG had plunged nearly 2% to touch the day’s lowest level at 6,945.5.

A total of 467 stocks fell, 258 rose, and 233 were unchanged. The IHSG transaction value yesterday only reached Rp9.89 trillion, involving 15.89 billion shares in 1.19 million transactions.

Meanwhile, foreign investors again engaged in selling activity with a total outflow of Rp686.13 billion.

Several conglomerate stocks attempted to lift the IHSG. Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA), which rose 6.62%, contributed 16.28 index points. In addition, an issuer owned by Toto Sugiri contributed 9.42 index points, and Bakrie’s issuer, Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS), contributed 7.47 points.

The IHSG’s performance in yesterday’s trading can be considered quite good compared to exchanges in the Asian region. Japan’s Nikkei fell 2.79%, Korea’s Kospi -2.97%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -0.81%.

Shifting to the rupiah’s movement against the US dollar (USD) in yesterday’s trading, it closed weaker.

Throughout the trading session, pressure on the rupiah was evident from the start. The rupiah opened weaker by 0.06% at Rp16,970/USD, and the weakening continued until the close.

The strengthening of the USD occurred amid rising market concerns over the conflict in the Gulf region, which has the potential to last longer. This situation has driven up oil prices and raised new concerns about inflation and the risk of global economic slowdown.

Head of Monetary and Securities Asset Management at BI, Erwin Gunawan Hutapea, said this policy is part of strengthening a more market-oriented monetary operations strategy.

According to him, this new instrument is expected to provide additional alternatives for banks in managing foreign exchange liquidity while supporting the deepening of the domestic financial market.

“Thus, it also supports the deepening of the financial market and maintains the stability of the rupiah exchange rate amid ongoing global dynamics,” said Erwin.

From the US stock market, Wall Street was mostly pressured by the continued rise in oil prices and a sharp decline in the technology sector, while market participants ignored Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on inflation.

The S&P index fell 0.39%, marking three consecutive sessions of decline and closing at 6,343.72. This position is about 9% below its highest closing level. The decline was led by the technology sector, which weakened by more than 1%. In contrast, the financial and utilities sectors recorded gains.

The Nasdaq Composite weakened 0.73% to 20,794.64. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 49.50 points or 0.11% to 45,216.14.

The CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, briefly broke through the 30 level during the trading session.

US oil prices also rose at the start of the week, with West Texas Intermediate futures closing up 3.25% at US$102.88 per barrel. This is the highest close since 19 July 2022.

Meanwhile, Brent crude rose slightly 0.19% to US$112.78 per barrel and is on track for the largest monthly gain in history with a surge of around 55%.

Fed Chairman Powell said that although energy prices are rising, medium- to long-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored.

He also noted that the central bank may eventually face questions about next steps, but emphasised that this situation has not yet arisen because the economic impact is not yet clear.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury fell after the statement. The benchmark yield last fell 9 basis points to 4.35%.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump offered some hope to investors that the war with Iran might end soon.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, he stated that the US is in serious discussions with a new, more rational regime to end military operations in Iran, adding that significant progress has been made.

However, Trump also warned that if a peace agreement is not reached soon and the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened immediately, the US will end its ‘beautiful presence’ in Iran by destroying all power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island (and possibly desalination facilities), which have deliberately not been touched so far.

This statement came after Trump said on Sunday that Tehran has accepted most of the US’s 15-point plan to end the war and agreed to an additional 20 oil tankers to cross the strait.

“Investors seem accustomed to the new anomaly, where markets tend to weaken on Thursdays and Fridays and strengthen on Mondays and Tuesdays,” said David Wagner, head of equities at Aptus Capital Advisors, quoted from CNBC International.

Wagner noted that in the last 90 trading days, the cumulative return of the market between Thursday-Friday lagged about 7% compared to the Monday-Wednesday period, with almost the entire difference occurring since 28 February when the war broke out.

“It’s like preparing for bad news ahead of the weekend… investors hedge and reduce risk, then re-enter at the start of the week. It’s just that this risk reduction now happens faster than in previous weeks,” he said.

Wall Street has just gone through a negative week, with the Dow and Nasdaq entering correction territory amid concerns that rising energy prices could harm the economy. The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all recorded their fifth consecutive weekly decline.

The market will close on Friday in observance of Good Friday.