Trump Dismissed Arab Allies Despite Being Warned of Iranian Retaliation
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — US President Donald Trump was reportedly warned in advance about potential Iranian retaliation against American allies in the Gulf, according to reports that emerged on Tuesday, 17 March 2026, amid Trump’s earlier claims that he was surprised by Tehran’s retaliatory strikes against military bases and civilian facilities in the region.
A US official and two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments revealed that pre-war intelligence reviews had included this risk. Although not stated as a certainty, the possibility of Iranian attacks against neighbouring countries was included in the list of potential outcomes.
“The pre-war intelligence assessment did not say that an Iranian response was a guarantee, but it certainly was on the list of potential outcomes,” one source speaking on condition of anonymity told Reuters.
However, President Trump made contradictory statements whilst attending a Kennedy Center council meeting at the White House on Monday. On that occasion, he insisted that Iranian retaliatory strikes against Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait were entirely unexpected.
“They (Iran) should not have targeted all these other nations in the Middle East. No one expected that. We were surprised,” said Donald Trump.
Trump’s statement adds to a growing list of administration claims deemed unsupported by official intelligence reports, including the assertion that Iran would soon possess missiles capable of reaching the US mainland. These various justifications were used by Trump and his aides to defend the decision to join Israel in launching air strikes against Iran since 28 February.
Beyond the risk of attacks on neighbouring countries, Trump was also reportedly briefed before operations began that Tehran would likely attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital to the global economy. Over the past two weeks, Iranian drones and missiles have struck various targets across Gulf nations, ranging from military bases to energy facilities.
When questioned again at a signing ceremony in the Oval Office on Monday afternoon about whether he truly received no briefing on the risk of Iranian attacks against Gulf nations, Trump again strongly denied this.
“No, no, no, no, no. The smartest experts, no one thought they would attack,” Trump stated.
A second source familiar with the matter explained that the US intelligence community had assessed that the US-Israeli strike plan aimed at killing senior Iranian leadership would likely trigger retaliation against American military and diplomatic positions. However, the Trump administration reportedly did not order the evacuation of diplomatic staff from several regional embassies until air strikes actually commenced.
The intelligence community also warned that Iran possessed both the capability and likelihood to expand its retaliation against American allies in the region. To date, the White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence have declined to provide official comments regarding the discrepancy between the President’s claims and these intelligence reports.