Top US Institution's Prediction: Gold Prices Set to Surge Wildly, When Will It Start?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Gold prices rose more than 1%, supported by the weakening of the United States (US) dollar. Investors are assessing the sustainability of the fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran and awaiting US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

According to Refinitiv, gold prices closed at US$4,763.62 per troy ounce on Thursday (9 April 2026), up 1%. This increase extends the positive trend for gold, strengthening 2.5% over the last three days.

Gold prices weakened slightly today. On Friday (10 April 2026) at 06:25 WIB, gold prices stood at US$4,758.96, down 0.1%.

The US dollar index weakened to 98.83, the lowest since 3 March 2026. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

“The dollar’s weakening has helped gold strengthen again, but there is caution in the market as participants try to interpret the meaning of that ceasefire,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, to Reuters.

“The ceasefire news is very bullish for gold, but prices have pulled back from recent highs as cracks begin to appear,” he added.

Israel has resumed bombing targets in Lebanon, which Tehran says should be included in the ceasefire agreement, while there are no signs that Iran is lifting the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

Failed negotiations and the potential re-escalation of conflict risk driving up energy costs and inflation, which could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer.

This could ultimately reduce the appeal of gold, which offers no yield, although gold is known as a hedge against inflation.

Morgan Stanley states that gold prices are expected to stabilise until the second quarter before strengthening again in the second half of this year.

“If rate hikes by the Fed can be avoided, we see gold potentially rebounding. In addition, the resolution of the conflict will also be a supporting factor, which is likely to refocus on the weakening value of fiat currencies,” said one of the world’s largest US-based investment banks.

The market is also awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, to be released on Friday.

Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose 2.8% over the 12 months to February, in line with expectations, and is likely to rise further in March.