Threat of Super El Niño: Expert Warns of Potential Forest and Land Fires Like in '97
The emergence of signals for a Super El Niño, or ‘Godzilla El Niño’, is predicted to trigger prolonged drought that increases the potential for forest and land fires (karhutla). An expert from Bogor Agricultural Institute (IPB), Bambang Hero Saharjo, has reminded that this year’s situation requires extra serious attention and proactive steps before haze smoke engulfs the archipelago.
The term ‘Super El Niño’ refers to the phenomenon of sea surface temperature warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean reaching at least 2.7°C above average. Its impacts are significant, causing shifts in global atmospheric circulation that trigger extreme weather.
“With this 2.7°C condition, this is exactly like the 1997-1998 fire incident, where 10-11 million hectares of land burned and 500 lives were lost,” said Bambang while inspecting karhutla with Riau Police Chief Inspector General Herry Heryawan in Bengkalis, Riau, on Friday (3/4/2026).
During the inspection, Bambang highlighted the water level in the ditch, which was more than 40 centimetres. “Meanwhile, the safe condition should be less than 40 centimetres,” he said.
According to Bambang, more comprehensive mitigation is needed to face the Super El Niño threat. Because, in his view, this Super El Niño phenomenon has the potential to cause even more severe karhutla.
“Because it will get worse, drier, and we will lack water,” he said.
Based on the latest study published in Nature Communications (2025), early warnings and proactive steps are absolutely key. Bambang stressed that surveillance priorities must focus on traditional vulnerable areas but with heightened vigilance.
“Fire locations besides Sumatra and Kalimantan also include Nusa Tenggara and other provinces that will soon enter the dry season,” he added.
Bambang then mentioned the Green Policing programme initiated by Riau Police Chief Inspector General Herry Heryawan. According to him, the strategic steps by Riau Police in massive tree planting can prevent worse karhutla.
“Riau Police has implemented Green Policing, tree planting and so on. Because why, the fires that occur must be balanced with tree planting. If this is not done, then the emissions we have calculated must be revised again,” he said.
“Because the greenhouse gas emissions we release must be controlled with planting, and Riau Police Chief has done that, even though it looks like ‘playing around’ planting…planting…planting, but if we look at it scientifically, that is the way to suppress greenhouse gas emissions,” he said.
Collaborative Handling
On the same occasion, Inspector General Herry Heryawan emphasised that karhutla handling cannot be done partially. He stressed the importance of cross-agency synergy to anticipate karhutla.
“We are here to provide motivation and encouragement. This firefighting effort is a joint commitment involving Riau Police, Kodam Tuanku Tambusai, Local Government, Manggala Agni, Fire Concerned Community (MPA), up to BPBD,” said the Police Chief at the firefighting location.
According to him, searching for fire hotspots must be done strategically and systematically so that the fire does not spread to other areas, especially amid the current Super El Niño threat.
“We move together to search for fire hotspots strategically, the goal is so that there is no spread to other places,” he added.